Tuesday, 2 September 2014

11am update - Transports powering upward

US equities have seen some minor mixed chop, but price action is the same... with underlying upward pressure - as reflected in new historic highs in the sp'500 and Transports. Metals/Oil remain very weak, with the USD on the climb.


Trans, daily


Summary

*there is notable weakness in commodities, as the US dollar continues what appears to be a very important multi-month climb.
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So, we've now two new index highs, and its not even lunch time!

Price structure on the Transports was a two week bull flag... and that has been confirmed with the new high.
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Upper weekly bollinger will be offering sp'2030s by Thur/Friday...a mere 1.3% higher.. very viable.

10am update - opening chop

US equities start the week with some minor chop , but it is notable that the sp'500 has already attained a new high of 2006. Transports/R2K are both moderately higher. Metals are very weak, Gold -$19, with Silver -1.3%. Oil is weak, -1.2%


sp'60min


VIX'5min


Summary

*a notable early gain in the VIX of around 10%...back into the low teens... but it has already failed...as seen on the 5min micro cycle.
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Okay..so...some minor chop.

I realise some are still seeking the 1980s... which would equate to VIX 15s (where there is an obvious gap zone)..but overall...there is little reason why we'll see a 2-3 day down cycle this week.

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*I remain long via SDRL, that opened higher, but is now a touch red ...the lower oil prices are not helping the energy sector.


10.40am.. There is just no downside power..and we're almost right back into algo-bot melt mode.

Coming up...the index ceilings for Sept'

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2004. Precious metals are beginning the last third of the year sharply lower, Gold -$15, with Silver -1.3%. USD is naturally stronger, +0.3%.


sp'weekly8


Summary

*awaiting ISM & PMI manufacturing, and construction data
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Welcome to a new month.. indeed, we're now two thirds of the year complete.

So, we're set to open a little higher. . the 2020s look a relatively easy target by Thursday.

One thing I will watching this morning is how high (or not) the upper bollingers jump for the bigger weekly/monthly cycles. I think it is kinda important since it offers an effective ceiling on the month ahead.
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Video update from a (not surprisingly) bullish Carboni



I should note, I fully agree with Oscar on the Gold, which looks set to take out the 2013 lows at some point. That has rather grave implications for the mining stocks, inc' the ETF of GDX. 
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Good wishes for Tuesday trading