10am update - Yellen at the hole

Equities open with some minor weak chop, but certainly nothing for the equity bears to get excited about. Considering the bigger weekly cycles, the sp'2000 threshold is most certainly very viable today. Oil remains weak, -0.6%


sp'60min

Summary

...standing by for the Yellen.
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Looking at the hourly cycle, equity bears just need a Friday close <1980.. to break the channel... that will open up two gaps... 1972... 1958.

On no outlook do I see the 1940s being broken below until October.
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10.08am.. Well, the speech is released, and the algo-bots are churning on it.

Its starting to get real tedious again...micro chop. Even a test of the lower channel - 1980 at the close.. looks difficult.

Maybe there is a Q/A later..where Yellen might say something 'stupid' ?


10.27am... minor chop.

Why wouldn't we see sp'2000s this afternoon?

Its not looking good for those seeking a down wave beginning today.

My concern is we'll just keep battling higher..to the upper weekly bollinger... currently 2022...and only slip back to 2000 (would make for a natural support).
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VIX showing absolutely ZERO concern... set to close red... net weekly decline -10%


10.47am.. tiresome micro chop....  absolutely nothing for bears to get excited about.

Notable strength: airlines, DAL, UAL, both +1%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1991. Metals are trying to bounce, Gold +$2. Oil remains weak, -0.4%. Fed chair Yellen is due to speak at Jackson Hole at 10am... and Mr Market will certainly be listening!


sp'daily5

Summary

We have a very interesting day ahead.

There remains threat of a reversal, not least since we're now close to the upper bollinger on the daily cycle.

Best case for the bears... a 2-3 day down cycle of 1.5/2.0%... to sp'1960/50s..with VIX 15s.

Worse case... continued melt into the 2000s... 2010/20 by end month.
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End week doom chatter from Hunter



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Good wishes for Friday trading!

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9.37am... ohh the humanity, sp -0.2%....the drama!

Airlines are fine though, UAL +1.4%


9.45am.. VIX +4%..but really... that is minor... so far this month, VIX is -26%

The Mighty bullish Dow

It was just another day to the upside for the US equity market. Most notable, the Dow, which is so far up 2.3% this week, and 2.9% for the month. Further upside into September seems very likely, with an upside target zone of 17300/500.


Dow, weekly

Dow, monthly'2, rainbow

Summary

The mighty Dow is indeed presenting a powerful bullish candle this week, and it will make for the third consecutive weekly gain, and an important close above the weekly 10MA.

The bigger monthly chart was offering the first outright bullish green candle since last December, this afternoon. The daily close was blue, but still, unquestionably bullish.


Looking ahead

Friday will be all about Yellen at Jackson Hole. I'm not even sure if we'll get a live stream of the speech. Regardless, market will want to make a play for the giant sp'2000 threshold.

 *next sig' QE is not until next Tuesday.
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Continuing to sit on the sidelines

Just consider that last Friday morning we were in the low sp'1960s. I exited long at 1962... a mere few hours later.. we were 1941. I'm a touch annoyed at not holding long another week, but really, I'm tired.

If we get a pull back to sp'1960/50s.. I'll pick up an index long for a trade into September, otherwise... I'm content to sit it out until the current multi-week up wave completes in mid/late September.

Keep in mind that I've not shorted the equity indexes since last summer, so..if I do go short this September, it'll be something of a major trade for me.


...and now for something rather different.

I noticed the following this evening (via gizmodo.com) A 7min short 'Dust', filmed just a few miles to the east of yours truly. Fans of Alan Rickman will be especially pleased...  enjoy...



Goodnight from London