Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes settled moderately higher, sp +5pts @ 1992. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for the sp'2000s, with 2010/20s viable by late August.


sp'daily5

R2K,

Trans

Summary

The most notable aspect of today, the morning rebound in the R2K. An early decline of -1.0%, but managing to quickly claw to flat...and settling a touch higher.

The sp' breaking a new historic high is merely reflective of what the Nasdaq accomplished last week. Dow/Trans both look set to set to follow within days.
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a little more later...

Relentless declines in volatility

The first hour of the day saw a rather bizarre brief hyper-strong reversal from -2% to +11%... but then renewed downside melt. The VIX settled -0.2% @ 11.76 (intra low 11.52). Near term outlook is for the 10s, 9s seem likely (if briefly)... at some point.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the ninth VIX decline in ten days
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I'm not sure what to make of the first 30 minutes of VIX trading. I'm sure someone out there has a valid explanation.... I wish I knew. It is interesting that we got stuck right at the descending trend - see daily chart.

VIX looks set to remain low for another few weeks. The upper price gap zone in the 15s remains a viable target on any 2-3 day equity sell down.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks very unlikely to be hit until at least October.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed generally higher for the 8'th day of 10, sp +5pts @ 1992 (new historic high 1994). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for sp'2000s tomorrow, with 2010/20s in late August.


sp'60min

Summary

So... another up day.. and what was especially impressive was seeing the R2K rebound from a morning low of -1.0%. The closing daily candle on the R2K was a clear spike floor, and bodes strongly for the bulls tomorrow..and into next week.

*I remain content on the sidelines. I'm not interested in going long at these levels, but certainly... have ZERO interest in attempting any index shorts until 2030/50.

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more later... on the VIX