It was just another day for the US equity market, with most indexes continuing to climb. The Nasdaq Composite is now just 11% away from the March' 2000 high of 5132. However, that looks somewhat out of reach this year.
Nasdaq, monthly, 20yr
Summary
It is highly notable that despite all the minor geo-political scares in recent weeks, the Nasdaq is showing a net monthly gain for August of 3.6%. Considering the current price action, a monthly closing gain of 5% now looks very likely.
Upper bollinger is offering the 4700s in the immediate term, and certainly, that would be the target for mid/late September. The giant 5000 level looks difficult to hit this year, not least if the market does see some degree of down wave in late Sept/October.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see an array of econ-data, jobless claims, phil' fed, leading indicators, and some housing data.
*there is sig' QE of around $1.5/2.0bn....bears beware
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Still cruising higher
So...another day higher, and it really is getting extremely tedious..
sp'weekly8b
Best guess remains a key top in mid/late September, 2030/50 zone, but I'm seeing increasing talk of the 2100s again... and that does concern me a little. As things are, the current cycle should complete within 3-5 weeks.
The only issue is how far can it fall from there? By late October, the lower weekly bol' will be around 1900, and that would be 'best bear case' in an initial down wave. I suppose some might even be seeking a H/S formation. In the meantime... I am more than content on the sidelines.
Goodnight from London
