Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 1978. The near term trend remains pretty strong to the upside, but there will be stiff resistance in the 1990/2000 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
Market will likely see minor chop until 2pm... when we have the Fed press release of the latest FOMC minutes.
For those seeking a break of the wave from 1904, it would seem more likely to occur this Friday, when we have Yellen at Jackson Hole.
Even then.. downside looks limited to 1950/45...at best, by early next week.
For those traders still trying to play the short side, it remains a painful time. The sp'500 has climbed almost 4% since the low of Aug'7th, and with the weekly cycles back to outright bullish, there is high likelihood of the 2030/50 zone in September.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
The green candle just keeps on getting taller, and it is a disturbing sight.. even to yours truly.
Note the upper bollinger on the weekly chart, which is offering the 2020s in the immediate term. By mid/late September, that will probably have climbed into the 2030/40s. So.. the 2050/70 zone is just about viable on a 'euphoria spike'.
Looking ahead
There is the EIA oil report.. and if supplies are higher than expected, then it will give Oil yet another kick lower.
More important though, we have the FOMC minutes (2pm)... market will be sure to react on that.
*next sig' QE is Thursday
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Video update from Mr Long... with Rubino
As always, good viewing for those with an interest in the macro-econ picture.
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Avoiding the pain
I suppose some could sneer and say 'ohh look.. he touted upside, but he ain't long'.
True, but my last two index trades were fine, and right now... at least
I'm not losing money on the short side.
Until we get
close to the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle - which will
probably be in the 2050s in September, I have ZERO interest in meddling
on the short side. Waste of time, and in my view....overly risky.
Maybe we'll see a down wave after the FOMC... or Jackson hole. If so.. I'll be looking to pick up another index long, otherwise, I'm more than content to sit on the sidelines.
US indexes continued to climb (6th day of 8), sp +9pts @ 1981. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the giant sp'2000 threshold, before some degree of minor down wave.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Suffice to say, the slow (but consistent) low volume algo-bot melt to the upside... continues.
I expect new historic highs on the Dow/SP' in the near term... the laggard remains the R2K. It will be difficult to break the July high of 1213.
Perhaps more importantly, I am keeping an eye on the NYSE Comp', upside target remains the 11300s in September.
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