Equity bulls are back in full control, with all the bigger cycles now back to outright bullish for most indexes. The weekly 'rainbow' candle is confirming sp'1904 as a key floor, with viable upside to 2020/30 in early September.
sp'weekly8b
Summary
*first, I'll start with reference to last Friday. Price structure was a baby bear flag, and there was indeed viable downside to the sp'1930s, with VIX 15s. As I noted at the time though, I have ZERO interest in attempting to trade the short side, whilst the primary trend is UP.
So.. I have missed out on gains today (closed LONG Friday morning at 1962)...but at least I'm not losing on the short side.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will have CPI data and housing starts. That should be enough to give the market an excuse to move in the early morning.
*next sig' QE is Thursday
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Waiting for a far better top to short
The recent down wave from 1991-04 was marginally interesting, but I continue to have no interest in trying to trade such tiny down waves. They are overly difficult to trade in my view...and simply not worth the effort.. or risk.
Instead, I remain looking for a key multi-month top, the following remains something I am keeping in mind...
sp'weekly9 - fib levels
Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) will likely tick upward for another 4-6 weeks, and then start to level out. So.. I'll only be interested in attempting to short the indexes/long VIX in mid/late September.
As ever, I'll endeavour to keep an open mind, and will adjust the outlook as I see fit in September.
Goodnight from London
