Tuesday, 12 August 2014

12pm update - awaiting renewed upside

US equities are attempting to rally from a morning low of sp'1929. Despite the minor declines, VIX remains weak, and will probably turn red this afternoon. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$6.


sp'60min


Summary

Suffice to say.. minor chop... upside into the 1950s looks likely tomorrow.

Price structure is still a bull flag...now spanning a good 7/8 trading hours.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for lunch

11am update - minor chop

US equities are seeing minor chop, but with the bears looking powerless, it seems just a matter of when we'll be in the sp'1950s..rather than if. Metals continue to build gains, Gold +$7, whilst Oil is still sliding, -0.7%.


sp'daily5


Summary

Seen on the bigger daily cycle, first target is pretty obvious, and whether today..or later this week, we'll surely be in the 1950s.

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Notable strength: DRYS +3.7% @ $3.07  (see my 'fair value' post from yesterday).... a break much above 3.10/20 would be significant.


11.27am... everyone getting a chance to add/re-position...

Worse case seems 1920/15 zone.....but still... 1950s look fine....

*despite the weak indexes, VIX is only +1%....won't take much of an equity turn for that to close red.

10am update - opening reversal

Equities open a touch lower, but we're seeing a rather clear reversal to the upside. First target remains the 50dma of sp'1955.. that is certainly viable today. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is -0.5%


sp'60min


Summary

So.. an opening reversal.. and the bull flag remains intact.

A break >1944 will confirm the 1950s are due in the immediate term.


10.20am.. chop chop... no downside pressure...   we'll surely resume higher..just a matter of when.

..yours... not in a particularly patient mood.