Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open around 1984. Precious metals are seeing a minor bounce, Gold +$3. Across the week, most indexes look set for net weekly gains, with the SP/Trans, having broken new historic highs.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting Durable goods orders at 8.30am

actual:  +0.7%... marginally better than expected.
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So.. we're set to open a little lower, but would any bears dare call the mid sp'1980s as an achievement to end the week?

Despite no sig' QE today (or for rest of July), price action remains the same. Minor down waves.. within a broader up trend.
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Update from Mr C.


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Notable post earnings weakness: AMZN -10% @ $323. However, very often is the case, that AMZN will see a powerful reversal. Hell, it'd not surprise me if it even managed to close marginally positive.

Strength: BIDU +7%... great earnings.
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Good wishes for Friday.. its almost the weekend :)


9.33am... Dow was 'weird' at the open... -11pts.. whilst the DIA ETF was -70pts....

Anyway... minor down wave....

Chance for the bears to exit.... and for the bulls to buy.

Long day ahead........


9.40am.. low for the day is perhaps already in.

sp'500 test the daily 10MA... 1978


9.44am.. VIX is NOT supportive of this opening decline. Will likely close red.

AMZN -10%... battling from -12%.... green close?  One to watch.


9.50am.. sp -0.5%... not exactly anything to get excited about, right? We know how this usually ends...yes?

Notable strength: UAL +4%

9.56am.. VIX in danger of seeing a black-fail candle within next few minutes! Bears...beware!

Looking ahead to the sp'2130s

It was a day of minor chop for US equities - although with a notable new high of sp'1991. The multi-month up wave continues of course, and with price action as it is, there can be increasing confidence that the key Fib' target in the sp'2130s will be hit.


sp'monthly5 - fib levels

Summary

*I do like to keep in mind the Fibonacci levels, more so on the bigger time scales. The above chart is an old one, and the 2130s were always a 'crazy upside target'...as far back as 2011.
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I read around a great deal of course.. last evening I noticed the following chart...

ES, weekly, by Carboni, O. July'23 2014

*Republished with permission.
see:  Oscars latest charts.
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If you count the candles, the 'choppy top' would be around next February.

Further, I'd certainly agree that we should expect the VIX, and equity price action to get more choppy as a grand multi-month top is formed.

An important point is that this Carboni chart is NOT suggesting any particular downside target. The downside candles in spring 2015 should be seen as merely 'illustrative'.


Now.. consider this...

sp'weekly8d - the 'Eddy' count

It is pretty interesting in that - by my estimate, if you agree we're headed to the 2100s.. then at the current rate of monthly increase (along with minor pull backs).. it'll likely take until early 2015... February is currently the 'best guess'.

So.. we have a monthly fib' target in the 2130s. Oscar has been touting the mid 2100s since the spring, and the 'Eddy' count would also be looking for a grand top in the 2130s.

Right now, February 2015 feels a very long way out. In terms of equity upside, the 2130s are only another 6/7% higher...which frankly.. isn't very much, is it?


Looking ahead

Friday has Durable Goods Orders... and that is kinda important. So long as it comes in reasonable, market has fair opportunity to melt higher into the weekend.

*next sig' QE is not until early August.. .at which point monthly QE will be a mere $25bn, of which $15bn will be the more market 'motivating' QE-pomo.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw minor price chop across the day, sp +0.9pts @ 1987 - but with a notable new historic high of 1991. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into next week.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

The broader trend remains very much to the upside.

Only the R2K is still lagging below the March high (1212), but the R2K could easily be trading in the 1200s within the next few weeks.

The Transports had a notable black-fail candle yesterday, and was today stuck at 8513. Equity bulls should be seeking to break that level next week.

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..a little more later...