Closing Brief

US equities closed well above the early morning low of sp'1952, settling -8pts @ 1964. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, with the sp'1990/2000s viable next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*price structure is a baby bull flag - seen more clearly on the 15min cycle. Bodes well for the bulls early tomorrow.
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The day started with a somewhat surprising sharp gap lower, but the daily close was certainly one that should concern those still on the short side.

There are a truck load of reversal candles on many individual stocks, and we have a clear black-fail candle on the VIX daily chart.


Possibility of further declines?

Sure, but... I'm guessing no. The broader weekly/monthly trends remain outright bullish, and I can't take any 'bearish chatter' seriously unless we were to break below sp'1900.
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With no football today (oh how I will miss the world cup), I will do the usual full set of post trading day updates....

more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - upward pressure into the close

US equities are moderately lower, with the micro 5/15min cycles offering a further minor wave higher into the close. A net positive daily close won't be easy, but regardless, today was a major fail for the bears. Oil has turned higher, +0.7%


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So... the closing hour.... lets see how many bears decide to close out...which will no doubt add to what buying there is.
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All things considered, the opening black-fail VIX candle was a great example of how it can be a very useful indicator at the open each day.

There are clear reversal candles on many many individual stocks, and it does not bode well for the bears tomorrow..or any of next week.
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3.09pm.. market levelling out around sp'1962.... headed higher into the close

3.18pm  ....another up wave IS still due....a daily close in the 1968/70 zone is target.

3.27pm... and up we go.


3.36pm.. clear baby bull flag on the micro 5/15 min cycle....

The only issue is whether we close the week in the 1970s... or 80s.


3.44pm.. up up up.....on track for 1968/70....

UAL +12.1%.... hmm

2pm update - underlying market strength

US indexes continue to recover from the early morning falls, with many (perhaps even the R2K) set for a net daily gain. VIX looks set to lose the 12s this afternoon, and a red close would make for a very strong confirmation that sp'2000s will be hit next week.


sp'60min

Dow, daily

Summary

The Dow daily chart is very bullish... if it can close green (not that its necessary).. it'd make for a VERY powerful spike floor candle.. and bode for Dow 17500/18k - as early as September - a mere 7 weeks away.
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For those still holding short from the open... today is turning out to be a bit of a disaster.

...for those watching the VIX at the open...today's recovery is not surprising.
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Notable hyper strength: UAL +11.3%.
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2.35pm. I'm just updating my other pages..with new template colours... hope some of you find it an improvement.

...meanwhile... minor chop, but the sp' is now comfortably holding the 1960s... a further minor up wave into the close... very viable.

Frankly, any daily close in the 1970s would be a major head slam to those daring to short the open.