Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 1944. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$3. The real action is in Oil, +1.8%, no doubt due to Iraqi concerns. Equities look set for a renewed push higher, but with lighter volume.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, it is day 1 of the World cup, and many will be turning their attention away from the markets later today (pre show starts shortly after 2pm EST.
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We do have some econ-data across the next few hours, so... market should start to move from here.
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Oil is roughly $106, and the $110 level remains a major threshold. A weekly/monthly close >$110 would be significant, and bode for some

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9.04am. futures slipping a little. . sp -2pts, we're set for 1941...a little close to breaking yesterdays floor.

Regardless, there is no significant downside pressure, and that will surely remain the case until at least next Wednesday afternoon.

Sporting Quiet

The World Cup begins tomorrow in Brazil, and for many investors, it will be a welcome diversion from the daily nonsense of the equity markets. It appears very likely that trading volume will be even lower as a result of the forth coming 64 matches, and a quieter market will favour the bulls.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

*the count remains a 'best guess', and right now, I'd guess we might see a small decline post FOMC, only to then rally into early/mid July.
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So yes, with the World cup football (or Soccer, as you might call it), I don't expect much from the US..or any other world market until mid July.

Sure, we could easily see a brief fall back to the low sp'1900s - where there are a number of aspects of support, but I sure don't expect 1800s again until late July/early August.


Looking ahead

We have an array of data tomorrow, jobless claims, import/export prices, bus' invent', and retail sales. Those should be enough to give the market a kick higher..if they are within expectations.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
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Ready for some games

I'm not a particular fan of what is the UK's national sport - Football, but the international games are something else entirely. First game is tomorrow at 4pm EST, although the TV coverage begins around 2pm...so I'd expect many to forget about trading the market by early Thursday afternoon.

The fact the world cup lasts an entire month should lead some to realise that things will be rather quiet for the next 4-5 weeks - which of course, will also encompass the US July'4 holiday weekend.

*I hold moderately long, via WFM, and that managed to close positive today, which was something of a bonus, considering the early morning decline. I'd sure like the 44s by late Friday, but that is a clear 5% higher.



Thanks for the comments across the day, its good to hear from YOU!

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw moderate weakness across much of the day, sp -6pts @ 1943. The two leaders -Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside into the FOMC of June'18.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add.

Yes, the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles are rolling over on most indexes, but there is nothing too decisive yet, and I'm guessing we'll see one further multi-day wave higher...taking us into the FOMC of next Wednesday.

I certainly have zero interest in being short the indexes until at least next Wed' afternoon, and even then, downside might be limited to just 2-3%.
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Closing update from Riley

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a little more later...