Eight green candles

Equity bulls remain in full control. Even the somewhat battered R2K is pushing upward, with an impressive net weekly gain of 2.7%. With new historic highs in the Trans, Dow, and sp'500, the equity bears have zero sign of this up trend ending in the immediate term.


sp'weekly8

R2K, weekly4

Summary

Suffice to say, another trading week concludes, and we have powerful new historic highs on 3 indexes (4 if you count the NYSE Comp'), with the R2K/Nasdaq also pushing strongly upward.

What happens at the next FOMC of June'18 will be important.

I've little doubt - as will the main market also believe, that the Fed will announce QE taper'5. What the market does then..., that is the issue.

Will the market just keep on pushing higher - with new historic highs in the R2K, or will we see another rollover? Considering the recent price action, and utter lack of downside power, I'm somewhat resigned to further new highs.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend update will be on the US monthly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed higher for a third consecutive day, sp +8pts @ 1949. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with minor opportunity for a retrace.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say, primary trend remains to the upside, but yes...we should be getting stuck kinda soon - not least if you consider the Trans/R2K charts.

Regardless, I have little interest in playing the short side in the immediate term, perhaps at the next FOMC of June'18.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...

Volatility settles in the 10s

With equities ending the week at historic highs, the VIX was naturally lower, settling -8.1% @ 10.73. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 13/10 zone, but if sp'1960/70s in July, then VIX 9s will likely be hit. Across the week, the VIX declined -5.9%


VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

VIX'monthly

Summary

So..VIX has slipped into the 10s for the first time since Feb'2007.

Even the mid teens are out of range in the near term.

Of course, at some point the VIX is going to spike...and I'd guess (at some point again this year), break into the 20s...but that could indeed be some months away.

For now, I have ZERO interest in picking up any VIX call positions.
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more later..on the indexes