10am update - opening gains

US indexes open moderately higher, with another set of new historic highs. Underlying price momentum remains strongly positive, although we are clearly over stretched on the weekly cycle. Precious metals are on the slide, Gold -$5.


sp'weekly8

Summary

*VIX slips -3%, but is still not yet in the 10s..not that it is necessary.
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On any basis, we're now getting toppy, trading above the upper bol' on the weekly.

Notable weakness, BTU -2.3%
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*all things considered, I've no interest in getting involved. From a pure price perspective, this morning is a valid short, but the equity bears have no downside power, and at best...1920..maybe 1900.
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10.18am..I'd call a top here...at least on a micro-cycle basis.

Dow 16909.....could fall a bit from here.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1942. Precious metals are similarly higher, Gold +$2. Equity bulls look set to end the week in full control of the market.      


sp'daily5

Summary

*monthly jobs: 217k net gains, headline rate, 6.3%

Arguably, it is a Goldilocks number.
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8.35am.. sp +4pts... 1944/45....so..we're in the zone I was noting yesterday, as a valid day-trade short...hmmm


8.44am...market seems likely to open with moderate gains..somewhere in the 1945/50 zone.

As things are, I still suspect a reversal, but I  have little interest in trading it. The setup is good - from a cyclical perspective, but...market momentum is so bullish.

*notable early weakness,  BTU, -1.8%.

Mr Market awaiting the jobs data

With the ECB announcement out of the way, the market is now turning its attention to the monthly jobs data. Barring a number <150k, the market has a fair chance to push into the sp'1950s, but from there, it will be getting over-stretched. An intra-day reversal will be a real threat.



sp'weekly8b

Summary

*please don't get overly fixated on the wave-count, but I thought I'd post up this count/scenario. It would bode for a key top in either mid June...or mid July.
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The weekly charts are looking powerfully bullish, and we look set to close the week with yet another green candle. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) is now positive cycle for a second week, and we look set to push broadly higher for another week or two.


Looking ahead

Tomorrow is the 70th anniversary of D-Day, and without question, that will be on the minds of many.

Aside from that aspect of remembrance, the market is expecting net monthly job gains of 213k, with a fractionally higher headline jobless rate of 6.4%.

Certainly, the market should be able to rally on any number >180/200k.
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Goodnight from London