12pm update - battling higher

Despite a minor down wave in early morning, the US indexes have battled back - no doubt, helped by $2-3bn of QE-fuel. A daily close in the 1937/42 zone is viable, with 1945/50 early tomorrow, which might equate to VIX in the 10s.


sp'daily5

R2K, daily

Summary

*again, without getting lost in the noise, I'm focusing on the bigger cycles.
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Suffice to say, the market is pretty content with the ECB policy decisions, and most now recognise that the ECB will likely announce a QE program in the late summer/early autumn.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - minor chop

US indexes are seeing some minor chop after breaking new historic highs. There remains high probability of a further push to 1940/50....by late Friday morning. From there...a reversal seems likely. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$9


sp'daily5

Summary

*I am resolutely trying not to get lost in the minor noise, as some seem to be.
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With the QE  this morning of $2-3bn, I have to believe we'll battle higher, with a net daily gain.

Where things get interesting is tomorrow, but more on that later...

Time to shop!
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11.28am.. back from shop... to sp'1933....and the 1940s look an easy target for early tomorrow.

The only issue is can the market spike too far..too fast...to 1945/50..and then see a swift 'Friday jobs reversal'...

right now..I'd give odds of 65% of that....and I will consider an index short early tomorrow.

10am update - new historic highs

Whilst the German DAX breaks 10k, the US markets have similarly broken new highs in the Dow/SP'500. Daily charts are offering 1940/45 in the immediate term, with 1950/55 on a 'Friday jobs spike'. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8..but below recently busted support.


sp'daily5

Summary

*sig' QE-pomo this morning...bears...beware!
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So..we have NIRP in the EU, but no QE program, with just another large LTRO.

Overall, the path is clear in the EU.

Eventually, the ECB will resort to buying bonds from the various EU states as a last ditch effort to stimulate growth/avoid recession....but not until the autumn, at which time we might have seen a multi-month down wave.
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*I remain content on the sidelines, and will see if we're 1945/50 tomorrow morning - which would be a far better level to launch an index short.
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10.19am.. I hold to earlier outlook....

QE will be kicking in soon....

I can NOT take these declines seriously.