Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1870. Precious metals are similarly higher, Gold +$2. Today, Yellen will talk to the US congress, and that will likely be a significant market moving event.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, we have an interesting morning ahead. It is of course very difficult to fathom how Mr Market will react, even if I knew exactly what she was going to say.

Hourly index charts have already seen a moderate down cycle, and there is ample opportunity for an equity rally across today...and tomorrow.
--

Hunter with Mr Gold



Yeah, this interview is almost an hour long, maybe watch on fast forward?
--

Mr Carboni....



So, Oscar is on the short train...is he starting to fall in love with the downside?
--

Good wishes for Wednesday trading.

Two days of the Yellen

The CEO of Print Central - Yellen, is due to spend Wednesday and Thursday morning, speaking to the US congress and senate respectively. Mr Market is primed and ready, and is no doubt just looking for an excuse to break new historic highs on the Dow/SP/Trans.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

*most notable today, we have flipped back to a blue candle..a provisional warning of trouble.
--

Yes, we saw some weakness across much of the trading day, but really, the price action is still a style that favour the bulls. This is especially reflected in the VIX, which only gained 4% or so.


USD breaks support

The USD has unquestionably broken support. The implications - at least so long as the USD remains <79.50, are for extra upward bias in all US asset classes. That sure doesn't mean equities - or any other given asset can't see net declines, but a falling dollar will certainly help take the edge off.


Looking ahead

We have productivity/costs, the EIA oil report, and consumer credit..yet far more important...

Yellen is due to give testimony to the US congress across much of Wednesday morning. It will likely get blanket coverage on the financial TV networks. It should be noted that Yellen is also due to address the US senate on Thursday.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Friday.
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed somewhat weak, sp -16pts @ 1867. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -1.6% respectively. It remains a mixed picture, but Yellen might well be able to 'inspire' the market tomorrow for a renewed push higher.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

The discrepancy between the two market leaders - Trans/R2K, is unusually large. By default, I'd have to side with the Trans 'old leader', but the R2K is close to taking out the recent lows.
--

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle for all indexes is rolling over, and bodes badly for the equity bulls this Wednesday.

In many ways..it is now a case of whether Yellen can inspire the market to rally, otherwise...last Monday's spike floor of sp'1850 is going to fail..and that would really change the bigger trends.
-

Closing update from Riley

--

--
a little more later...