3pm update - weakness into the weekend

US equities have slipped into the sp'1850s, although the really significant weakness remains within the R2K, Trans, and Nasdaq. Taken as a whole though, nothing overly 'dire' has occurred today, and the equity bulls still have a fair chance of another up wave next week.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, another week is coming to a close.

Today's weakness is interesting (more so in the R2K, Trans, Nasdaq), but I am still looking for the sp'1900s. Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle looks floored, although there is clearly no turn..yet.

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I will hold long across the weekend, CHK, STX, and short- SLV. Will be seeking to pick up RIG (again) next Monday in the 42.25/41.75 zone.
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updates into the close....

3.25pm.. not much happening...just minor weak chop.

Notable that AMZN held the big $300 level, whilst AAPL is still actually net higher!


3.33pm.. RIG continues to weaken..and another 50/75 cents lower on Monday..and I'll pick that one up again.

Next week is a HUGE week, especially Wednesday with ADP jobs, GDP Q1, and the FOMC.

So, one way or another, we're going to see some strong price action.


3.46pm.. Well, the sp' held the 50 day MA..so.. that is something for the bull maniacs to be relieved about. VIX is +7%, and really, that is kinda lame in the scheme of things. Even the mid teens seem hard to achieve.

3.55pm... been a good week...back at the close!

2pm update - the chop continues

US indexes remain choppy, holding moderate declines, although we do have much more significant weakness in the R2K -1.6%, and the Trans -1.5%. VIX is +8%, but still 'only' in the mid 14s. Metals are mixed, Gold +$7, whilst Silver is fractionally red.


sp'60min

Summary

*Arguably, based on the past few weeks, today is an opportunity for those on the short side to bail into the weekend. I realise though, some will be calling for much lower levels next week.
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So...some weakness to end the week, especially in the two leaders. Personally, I think everyone should be pleased with today. Bulls are getting a new entry level, whilst bears are getting a chance to bail at somewhat lower levels.

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re: RIG. I continue to have a major interest in this stock..

exited LONG at 43.30...now have a new long-entry target of the low 42s next Monday.

Something I will consider across the weekend
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2.16pm..  VIX is creeping higher....'weakness into the weekend'. but to be clear, I'd still be seeking the sp'1900s within the near term.

RIG continues to melt lower, and a re-purchase in the low 42s next Monday...very viable.


2.25pm.. new low. 1860..and here come the 1850s... there will be STRONG support at the 50 day MA of 1858, so we might get stuck there.

Regardless.. the weaker bull hands are getting washed out today.
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2.42pm.. a spike floor. just above the 50 day MA?  Hmm

I have to think bears are still getting an opportunity to exit here..before the 1900s.

1pm update - chop into the afternoon

US indexes are holding moderate declines, with the sp' in the mid 1860s, a fair way below the Thursday high of 1884. Equity bulls should be seeking a weekly close back in the 1870s, which would set up the first half of next week.


sp'60min

Summary

Barring a secondary wave lower this afternoon..into the sp'1850s, with VIX 15s, I can't consider today as anything but a minor retrace.

Bears been teased time and time again lately..I don't see this as any different.
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Out of RIG

I was intentionally stopped out of RIG just earlier at 43.30, which I'm very pleased with.. Price structure on the hourly looks like a castle top...and I'm glad to be out!.

60min

A retrace into the low 42s into Monday..would make for an interesting pickup level.
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1.21pm.. Another minor wave lower, and VIX is back on the climb.

Best case for the bears remains 1850/45... with VIX 15s.