Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1873. Metals are higher, Gold +$8. Equity bulls should be seeking a weekly close in the sp'1880s, with likely follow through 1890/1900 by next Wednesday.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting PMI service and consumer sentiment data later this morning
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Ford (F) earnings - missed, stock -2.3% in the upper 15s.
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So, we're set to open a little lower.

Notably, there remain geo-political 'rumblings' in the Ukraine, but that sure hasn't much helped the equity bears lately.

What matters more than anything though is price, and the broader weekly index cycles are suggestive of at least a few more weeks of upside, and that will get us comfortably into early May.
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Friday update from Hunter



I would certainly agree that China/Japan remains a major simmering issue - more important than the Ukraine in my view. China wants those rocks...and what is underneath.
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Good wishes for Friday..its almost the weekend!
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9.00am... Notable weakness in AMZN, -5%. I guess a PE ratio of 320 is a little pricey for Mr Market?

*I'm looking at STX, as my next earnings play. Great company, although the setup is not as good as RIG/CHK. hmm


9.37am.. minor morning washout.... little reason why this will last.

AMZN -8%...which is certainly amusing to see, but even there, the momo chasers might appear pretty soon.


9.42am.. LONG STX, from the 53.50s.. will likely hold across next week or two.

Upside into the next FOMC

US equities saw minor price chop across the day, with the support zone of sp'1875/70 holding. Market looks set for general upside into the FOMC of next Wednesday. From there, the big unknown is whether the market will begin a significant decline at the announcement of QE-taper'4.


sp'weekly8

Summary

We continue to have the second consecutive green candle on the 'rainbow' weekly charts. Unquestionably, the broader trend remains to the upside, and I certainly have ZERO intention of trying to short this market in the immediate term.
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Looking ahead

Friday will see PMI services, and consumer sentiment data. If those come in 'reasonable' it'll be probably enough reason for the market to melt higher into the 1890s by the weekly close.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
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Permabear still going long

Today was a pretty good day in the London bunker. An early FCX exit (earnings weren't great, but the stock opened higher anyway), and RIG battled strongly higher across the day. The only annoyance was SLV, which saw a sharp opening reversal to the upside. Oh well, I am prepared to wait until next weeks FOMC, at which point I still expect another opportunity for the metals to get smacked lower.

I even picked up a secondary long into the close - CHK, a good company, with what looks to be a reasonable 5-10% of upside into May.

Don't ever tell me 'the Permabear is a one sided trader who never goes long'!

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw some mixed chop across the day, sp +3pts @ 1878. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for the sp'1900s, which seems very viable by next Wednesday. How the market copes with QE-taper'4, is another matter entirely.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say, today was pretty interesting to be part of, but many of the daily charts are suggestive that today's weakness was just another little tease to the equity bears.

With sig' QE-pomo next Mon/Tuesday, bears face likely problems for at least the first half of next week.
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a little more later...