Friday, 25 April 2014

12pm update - intraday floor... probably

The market has seen some interesting weakness, but appears to have likely floored for the day in the typical turn time of the 11am hour. Bull maniacs should be seeking a weekly close in the sp'1875/80 zone, with VIX back in the 13s. Metals are starting to slide, with Silver fractionally lower.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

I think we have a floor, but there remains risk of a secondary wave lower into the close - although weekly charts argue against it.
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So...I'm long, and I still have ZERO intention of meddling on short side for some time.
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VIX update from Mr T


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time to cook
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12.20pm..RIG looks a little toppy on the smaller cycles..I'm on a huge gain...seeking to get stopped out...at 43.30.

12.22pm.. KICKED from long- RIG.... frankly, a great gain to end the week. Will probably pick up again next week.

11am update - continuing weakness

US equities are lower, but nothing 'significant yet'. Any break <sp'1860, will offer the best bear case of a gap zone fill around 1845. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8. VIX is higher by 8%, but that amounts to the 14.40s - not exactly 'market fear'.


sp'60min


Summary

We're now at the typical turn/floor time of 11am..so lets see if the bull maniacs can turn this around, and battle back into the 1870s by 1pm or so.
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Notable weakness, AMZN -9% at $304. If the 300s are lost, then 260/40, but that would be something of a surprise.
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VIX is trying to make a break for the low 15s


sp'1845 wit VIX 15s..and then a turn?
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11.07am... VIX +9%...seemingly headed for 15.25 or so...with sp'1850s.

11.27am.. market trying to put in a spike floor... bears...beware!

*notable strength in the Oil/Gas service sector...RIG already green, and set for the 44/45s.

10am update - opening moderate weakness

US indexes are seeing another bout of moderate weakness, with the support zone of sp'1875/70 marginally broken. Equity bulls should push higher into the late afternoon, for a weekly close in the 1880s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8.


sp'60min


Summary

*I picked up a third long position, STX, from the 53.50s. Seeking a provisional exit in the 57/58s, and will thus hold across the weekend.
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So..a little weakness, but still...I just don't see any significant power on the downside.

With 2 sig' QE next Mon/Tuesday, bears face problems into Wednesday afternoon.
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Notable weakness, OPEN -3%...having broken the floor yesterday.


A look at AMZN...


AMZN needs to hold the $300s, or next level is around $260/40 zone. I guess the notion of PE 300s is not exactly enticing many today. Shame.


10.22am... market stabilising, and bears are in trouble again.