US equities open moderately lower, with the sp in the mid 1850s. VIX is showing a little upside kick, +10%, but still, VIX 15s only rank as 'very low', rather than 'bizarrely low'. A latter day bounce looks very likely. Metals are moderately weak, Gold -$4
sp'60min
sp'weekly8
Summary
For me, what really matters is to see a breach of the weekly 10MA - currently 1849...and then the 50 day MA of 1840.
If those two are busted..then its game over bulls.
Note the lower weekly bol'...still in the 1770s...that would be 'best bear' case, and offer a larger H/S formation.
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VIX looks unable to clear the 15s in this cycle....bears..beware.
10.08am... opening black candle on the VIX...as I feared.
So..lets see how high the bull maniacs can bounce this today.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 1858. Precious metals are a touch lower, Gold -$2. Equity bulls are in some real trouble today, although until Mr Market puts in a daily close <1840, this is still the same nonsense that we've seen since early March.
sp'daily5
Summary
So, we're going to break the rising trend, along with the 61% fib of 1863 at the open.
Equity bears should push hard to a key break under the 50 dma - which will be around 1840 at the open - also where the lower daily bol' is.
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*As noted at the weekend, there really isn't any econ-data of note this week. Further, equity bulls don't have any sig' QE-fuel until Thursday.
For those trading the Dow...
Bears need 16350 for a break of trend, which will open the door to 16100/000.
...in the grand scheme of things though, all these moves are pretty small, aren't they?
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Special note...
I am due to lose power this morning, and will likely be offline for an hour, so if I disappear..you know why!
As a result, I won't be hitting any buttons until the afternoon. Considering
the Friday price action, I will consider a small short position...but
really, I'd feel a hell of a lot more comfortable being short the
market <1840.
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9.15am.. power already off...and back...
I should be around..as normal for the day :)
9.17am.. sp -4pts, so..that is 1861...not quite a break of trend, and still.. a good 1.2% from breaking the 50 dma.
Bears can sustain a bounce, but arguably no higher than the recent cluster price level of 1875.
9.33am.. minor opening weakness, and bears just don't have the power to kick this significantly lower.
Despite no QE today, 1870/75 seems very viable...which will no doubt annoy all those seeking a major red start to the week.
9.41am Well...bulls not showing up yet. Should see a turn by 11am
VIX +8%...showing a little power...but..we're only in the 15s..this remains a bizarrely low level.
Good evening. Futures are broadly flat, but how Monday opens does not particularly matter (at least to yours 'on the sidelines' truly). What does matter though is whether any of the key supports are busted this week. If bulls can't hold the sp'1850s, things could get rather interesting indeed.
sp'daily5
Summary
For the doomer bears out there..
First target... rising trend... 1860...that looks easy..whether Mon/Tuesday.
Second...the recent low of 1842.
However.. the only target that really matters is the 50 day MA, currently 1839..and slowly rising. On ANY break of the 50 dma, we would surely see a major daily drop, much in the style of Jan'24th, when the sp' closed -38pts.
Even then, this is all minor noise, I'm far more interested in the bigger picture. The following remains the most bearish outlook I can come up with...
sp'weekly7b
One problem right now though is that a few of the indexes are somewhat out of sync, namely the R2K/Nasdaq. Regardless though, for me, a break under the weekly 10MA - which will be in the 1850s at the Monday open..is key.
So.. how do I think this will all play out?
I think many are starting to agree that this market is exhausted. Whether the top was this past Friday at sp'1897, or not for another 2-4 weeks @ 1925/50, does it really matter?
I am most certainly seeking a summer sell down to sp'1625/1575. From there, I'm planning to go all out long, although that sure won't be easy to stomach.
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The following is by Mario at SMF, I've followed him for a fair few years, and even though I don't subscribe to SMF, the weekend updates - especially the bigger outlooks are well worth hearing...
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If you're not in the mood for chart chat video, how about some dollar doom?
Doom chatter from Hunter, with the JW
Make of that....what you will. Personally, I think the 'dollar doom' talk is utter nonsense, but I do find it entertaining to listen to.
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Ohh, and here is a super short update from Mr Permabull, who is seeking ES in the 1830/20 zone within a few days.
Problem for the bulls, if that occurs, the bull maniacs lose the 50 day MA, and the weekly 10MA... in my view, that would bode for much lower levels.
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