12pm update - the 1840s look viable

For the third consecutive trading day, the morning gains have largely evaporated, and the market is back on the slide. VIX is still slightly negative, but the 15s look likely, if not the 16s. Any daily close in the 1840s will keep open the door to much lower levels...the key threshold remains 1830.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

*..eyes..on the VIX, where we currently have a daily reversal (hollow red) candle, although I sure don't expect 20s in the immediate term, but 16-18s are certainly viable on a spike.
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VIX update from Mr P.



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stay tuned.

11am update - another reversal?

US equities are holding moderate gains, but somewhat struggling. VIX is offering a morning reversal, and if the bulls lose the sp'1860s today...it'll be another important failed rally. Metals are building minor gains, Gold +$5. VIX remains lower, but off the lows.


vix'60min

Summary

*I remain focused on the VIX...seeking a daily close in the 16s..which should clarify things..at least a little.
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Right now, little else to add.

Lets see if the bears can kick the market lower..back into the 1860s. A red close would be especially bearish, but as noted earlier.....there is sig' QE Wed/Thursday.

This is turning out to be a messy week.
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11.37am.. the reversal continues... VIX set to turn green within an hour.

Best case for the bears right now... sp'1840...with VIX 16s.

10am update - VIX opening reversal

US indexes open higher, with the sp' once again breaking into the 1870s. The VIX gaps lower by a rather strong -6%, but is offering an opening reversal. Equity bulls need to keep on pushing here, or they are highly vulnerable to a third consecutive daily reversal.


VIX'60min

Summary

Equity bears need two things...whether today..or tomorrow....

A daily close in the 1840s...or lower...
A daily VIX close in the 16s..or higher.

Right now, those seem bold targets, but, again the question remains..who wants to go long in the 1870/80s?
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*my concern remains that there is sig' QE-pomo both tomorrow..and Thursday. If we are in the 1870/80s early tomorrow, there will be extreme risk of new highs..and then of course, we would close the month in the sp'1900s..much to the delight of the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.