12pm update - failed week for the bears

Even if the indexes slip back to the low sp'1870s in the latter part of today, it will still make for a lousy week for the bears. Not only have the bulls achieved a new high on the sp'500, but we've again seen a market that recovers losses far quicker than it takes to build them.


sp'60min

Summary

Lousy day huh? Well, except for those still buying the proverbial dip.

So much for the Wednesday hysteria, which seemed to last a mere 30 minutes or so, only to regain half the losses, and here we are..having fractionally broken a new high.

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The weekly charts are now back to outright bullish...

sp'weekly8

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time for lunch, which should consist of 3 servings of tranquilisers, and a bottle of red wine. yes?


12.30pm... Certainly, we seem stuck in the low 1880s (not that that is anything for the bears to be pleased about, urghh).

The last MACD down cycle was a low of 1850, and right now, even 1870/65 looks difficult for Monday.

Unless some stinky news appears over the weekend...bears look toast for next week.

Ohh, and in other 'good news' , Oil Is +1.3%.  Bullish US consumer for spring, yes?

11am update - morning chop

The indexes are mixed, sp'500 having fractionally broken a new high, but the R2K and Nasdaq both turned red. VIX has given an opening reversal candle, which is typically suggestive of a floor, but its opex, and with a new sp'500 high, the bulls are unquestionably in control.


vix'60min

Nasdaq, daily

Summary

A bit of a mixed mess. I guess the tech' bears are having a relatively okay morning, with declines of -0.2% or so.

The two leaders - Trans/R2K, certainly remain stuck as they have done for the past few weeks.
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So...what now?

I remain primarily focused on the VIX, and that opening reversal, but VIX is back on the slide this hour...with indexes trying to push higher again.
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Notable movers: BTU +2%, STX +3%,     whilst UGAZ -4.5%


11.24am.. so much for the opening VIX reversal..itself.. reversing back to the opening low.

Barring a latter day fall, with sp <1870...the weekly cycles will all close strongly.

No doubt, much of the serious short-side money got out at the open.


11.41am.. the opening VIX reversal..complete fail...to new lows.

Trans/R2K pushing upward, if those two break new highs today..then none of the serious bear money will be still in.

10am update - morning break through

After three days of trying, the equity bulls finally break the sp'1875 resistance, and with a truck load of short-stops getting hit, the market breaks a new historic high. VIX breaks back into the 13s, taking out the pre-FOMC low.  Metals are holding gains, Gold +$10


sp'15min

vix'60min

Summary

*the only thing equity bears have right now is an opening reversal candle on the VIX, but really, I don't have much faith in that with new index highs.
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On balance, it'd seem the chances of these opening gains fully reversing, are less than 5%, and the door is now wide open to the sp'1900s in early April.

For those buying the FOMC Yellen drop...congrats, I guess you could say, 'normal service resumes'.
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I am probably straw-clutching, but the R2K opens with a black-fail candle...

R2K, 60min

Hmm ?


10.02am.. so... an opening VIX reversal candle, and a R2K black-fail candle....

*for those wondering, my core short block (SDS) came within 2 cents of being kicked (its 2x lev, I keep a loose 2% stop loss). If I don't get kicked today, I'll be somewhat surprised.


10.11am.. VIX jumps...but I can't take any of this seriously unless 16s..and that sure is a long way up, and would be equiv' to sp'1850/45


10.27am.. Now the Trans' looks in danger of turning red.  Hmm

I'm entirely refraining from watching any clown finance TV this morning, but I can guess at what their cheer leader script is saying. 
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Eyes...on the VIX.  Equity bears need a surge to the low 16s to negate this mornings train wreck.


10.32am.. Anyone know whats up with the Nasdaq, -0.6% ?

So... Trans, R2K, Tech'....somewhat weak.