12pm update - building the RS

Equities continue to hold moderate gains, with the sp' making a play for the mid 1870s  - a mere 0.5% from a new high. Most notable, the Transports, which is closest to breaking a new high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9. VIX remains crushed, -8% in the 14.30s.


sp'60min1c - H/S

Summary

Any move >1875...and the above scenario will get dropped.
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We are unquestionably 'on the edge', not least with the Transports seemingly due to break a new historic high within the next hour or two.

If this is a H/S formation..then the bears have to draw the line around 1875.

Best guess....we will go no further.
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VIX update from Mr T



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time for tea.


12.29pm... we're holding the line...so far.  The news from the Crimea is not exactly bullish, but still...Mr Market doesn't much care.

11am update - in the magic box

US equities are moderately higher, with the sp' probably having maxed out at 1872, ahead of tomorrow's FOMC. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, Silver -1.6%. VIX is reflecting a market will zero concern about anything, -8% in the 14.30s.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we have broken into the 1870s..and we're now in my target box for a right shoulder.

Kinda interesting, yes?
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I am now seeking price chop all the way into tomorrow afternoon. We could easily drop to the low 1860s, before a brief FOMC spike back to 1870/75.


11.34am.. Transports close to breaking a new high..and that would be a problem.

10am update - continued gains

US equities open moderately higher into the mid sp'1860s, and the only issue now is whether 1870s are hit today..or tomorrow. Bears still lack any downside power, and if Yellen can talk up the market tomorrow...to new highs >1883, then bears are going to need to wait some more.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

*Metals are lower, but Gold is holding within a broader up trend. Most important..a golden cross is due at the end of this week. No doubt, many others will highlight this bullish aspect at that time.
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It is kinda quiet out there, and in many ways, I'd look for minor price chop all the way into Wednesday afternoon.

Best guess...market goes no higher than 1875 tomorrow.. before rolling lower again.
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10.01am.. Well, we're coming up to the my pretty yellow box of sp'1865/75.

Yet..I think it is overly risky to short ahead of the FOMC announcement.

I ain't doing anything. Lets see the market chop now.


10.22am.. VIX getting crushed again..-7%, which even I'm somewhat surprised at. The 13s look due, whether today or tomorrow..doesn't much matter.
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Notable strength, DRYS +3.5%, but its still 10% down on just over a week ago.


10.33am.. If we go much above 1875..then my primary outlook will be on the edge of getting trashed.