US equities are holding moderate declines of around 0.8%, with a VIX +14% in the low 16s. However, we're now approaching the typical time when the downside pressure (what little there is) is usually exhausted. The question now is...how well can the bulls fight back into the late afternoon?
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
For me, the VIX remains the underlying problem for the equity bears. Yes, it is significantly higher, but overall..this just isn't a market that is particularly upset.
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I think the opening black-fail candle on the hourly VIX is the key aspect of today.
Holding to original outlook..continued broad upside into the next FOMC.
With sig' QE today..and Wednesday...bears still face the old problem.
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Metals are building gains.. Gold +$27...back to the level from last October. More on that ...later.
11.14am.. marginal new lows on the indexes...
but VIX has still not broken above the gap high.
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Bears just don't have the downside power kick.
Metals build gains... Gold +$29...one of the strongest gains in some weeks..maybe months?
11.21am.. Again... market trying to floor..just around 1840...and this is the typical turn time!
Bears....beware!
11.43am.. triple spike floor on the 15min cycle. Nothing conclusive yet..but it makes for a pretty good initial floor.
Bears probably getting the last opportunity to exit before the ramp.
Despite equities opening somewhat lower (but not significantly)...the VIX is likely telling the story here. We have a black-fail candle - in a gap zone...and again, it seems there just isn't much power on the downside. With sig' QE this morning..bears face the usual problems
VIX'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Lots to cover today....bear with me.
Those black candles usually don't bode well for the equity bears.
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I have a LOT to say on the weekly/monthly cycles..but I'll leave that for later today, after things settle down a bit.
Suffice to say...I'm holding to original outlook..broad upside into the FOMC of March'19.
10.15am... divergence between indexes and VIX.
Indexes new low..but VIX still below the opening gap.
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I can't take these declines seriously...at all.
Typical turn time..is of course..around 11am....
10.30am..possible reversal here...from sp'1841.... smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a pretty strong turn.
VIX did NOT break the opening high...and again..that is a key problem for the equity bears.
Good morning. Futures are lower (although not significantly), sp -14pts, we're set to open at 1845. Precious metals are sharply higher, Gold is +$22, with Silver +1.5%. Miners are benefiting, GDX +2.6%. Oil and Gas are both higher on the Crimea concerns, both by around 2.5%
sp'60min
Summary
Welcome to March!
So, we're going to open lower..but the real question is...is this the start of something major...or just another reversal coming?
Best guess...a reversal..whether this morning, later today..or as the week progresses.
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Those bears holding (bravely) short across the weekend are getting a prime opportunity to tighten trading stops. If market does reverse..at least they'll likely guarantee some degree of profit. It would be pretty damn stupid to see some good profits turn into sig' losses by this Friday..yes?
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Update from Mr Carboni
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Good wishes for today..and the month! Spring is coming :)
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Ohh, and I've even mentioned we have sig QE-pomo today, along with some econ-data..but you read my weekend report anyway...right?
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8.35am.. ooh lookie...CNBC rolls out Buffett this morning...and naturally..Ms. Quick is there with him.
sp -17pts.. 1842.... still.. that is barely significant.
8.40am... I was thinking about the VIX....best guess...we open +15%...to the low 16s.
However, again, I have to note..equity bears need to be VERY careful here about a reversal, especially around the typical turn time of 11am.
Beware of black-fail candles on the daily/hourly VIX chart this morning!
Best guess... sp' floors in the 1840/35 zone...with VIX 16s.
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9.20am.. so.....we're set to open sp -14pts...to the low 1840s..and VIX +12/15%.
I remain VERY concerned at a likely reversal this morning.
There just isn't much downside power (still)...and with QE of $2-3bn...bears......beware!
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9.32am...okay people.... VIX +17% in the low 16s...
Watching for a reversal here!
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*I'm looking at the bollinger bands..weekly/monthly charts...more on that later though.
The trading range for the spring is starting to be come a little clearer.
VIX, black-fail candle in the GAP zone...low 16s.
I think that is probably it.
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9.38am.... black candle on the VIX....indexes are lower, but holding broad support, including the daily 10MA.
9.40am.. we're only 10mins in..and the VIX is -5% from the opening gap.
