Wednesday, 26 February 2014

12pm update - a daily close in the 1850s, yes?

With the bears having no downside power, the market is continue to broadly claw higher. A daily close in the sp'1850s looks probable, although it should be noted..even the 1860s are viable today. Metals are weak, Gold -$14.  Despite higher indexes, VIX is holding minor gains of 2-3%


sp'daily5


Summary

Equity bulls are just not getting any significant upside today, but hey..does it matter? Neither are the bears able to push lower, and we have a reasonable floor of 1840 in the immediate term.

Broadly, the upward trend...continues.


Notable movers

UGAZ -7%, and is making for a 3 day decline of around -30%, I guess it must be those green shoots of spring coming?

TSLA +4% in the $257s


As I noted yesterday..it is pure hysteria. Entertaining to watch, but I'll never meddle in.

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VIX update from Mr T



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time for tea!

11am update - no downside pressure

A bit of a choppy mess in the opening 30 minutes, but Mr Market held the soft support of sp'1840, and is already back in the 1850s again. Equity bears continue to show no downside power, and there is now the threat of a daily close in the 1860s this week. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10


sp'60min


Summary

I would be utterly bemused at any bear getting overly excited at the opening weak chop.

It is the SAME nonsense we've seen for weeks now. A few points down...and that was it.
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With heavy QE tomorrow, so long as Yellen doesn't say something monumentally stupid to the US Senate (such as Gold is NOT a 'relic'), then we'll just keep on clawing higher.

Weekly charts continue to offer the 1870s..whilst the monthly is offering 1900s - and that will jump to around 1940/50 at next Mondays (March 3rd) open.
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stay tuned!


11.07am.. Metals sliding, Gold -$15.  Nothing dramatic..yet, but if it slips back under the 200 day MA, another $17 lower, then it'll be a problem for the gold bugs.

10am update - opening gains fading

US indexes open slightly higher, with the market set to again climb into the 1850s - whether we can close there, is another matter. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$8, although the near term trend remains bullish.


sp'daily5


Summary

*not exactly the most exciting of opens, and the gains have already faded. Yet...as ever..there is very little downside power. Barring a break <1840, bears have absolutely nothing to look forward to.
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The mainstream have been getting increasingly twitchy that the sp'500 has not yet made a closing high in the 1850s.  Equity bulls really should be seeking a daily close >1850 either today or tomorrow. There is heavy QE tomorrow, so the opportunity is there.

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Notable movers:

Dreamworks (DWA): -12%, on lousy results, but then, the Q3 results weren't much good either.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

I'm kinda surprised the company only has a market cap of $3bn of so. Regardless, it ain't doing so well.
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First Solar (FSLR) -10%. I'm a fan of solar power, but this stock is more over-hyper unstable nonsense.
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10.15am.. a bit of a choppy mess, but the housing data has given the market a slight kick to the upside.

Hourly MACD cycles look lousy for the bears. A daily close in the 1850s...very probable.

Notable discrepancy..to the indexes... VIX +4%... hmm