The US equity market remains crazy strong, with a 7 day ramp from 1737 to 1830 - a 5.3% gain! This is especially impressive considering the reduced amount of QE-pomo. A multi-month high (from the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074), in the sp'1880/1920 zone is now sought, in late March/early April.
sp'weekly8
sp'weekly9 - the next fib retrace
Summary
The weekly 'rainbow' charts sure look powerfully bullish. The 1737 low is almost a clear 100pts lower, and we're well within reach of breaking new historic highs. Equity bulls should be content with any Friday close >1815, and frankly, that now looks a relatively easy target.
Such a weekly close will confirm last week as a turn (blue candle), with this weeks green candle. Best guess...at least 2-3 more green candles, taking us into the 1880/1920 zone by late March/early April.
It remains possible we'll see a key top around the next FOMC of March'19, when QE taper'3 will likely be announced.
Looking ahead
We have a trio of econ-data to conclude the week. Import/export prices, industrial prod', and consumer sentiment. The latter two might be enough to kick the market into the 1840s if Mr Market remains in 'hyper' bullish mood.
*next sig' QE-pomo is next Tuesday (we are closed Monday anyway)
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Bears still having to be patient
The ramp in late 2011 was expected..and indeed..follow through into late spring 2012 was also understandable. Yet..here we are, over 18mths beyond that point, and we're still broadly climbing.
I'm beyond tired of waiting for a conclusive rollover on the weekly AND monthly charts. The recent failure to hit the lower weekly bollinger (which I will keep highlighting) was indeed a major sign that 1850 was NOT a key top, and will surely be surpassed.
I'll be more than pleased once we get into late March/early April. Perhaps then, finally.. this giant wave (whether you want to call it a 3, C, X, Y,..or even 'wave of delusion', will be complete...and over with!
**tomorrow is valentines day...with a full moon, that can only end well, right?
Goodnight from London
