Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1817. Metals are fractionally lower. After an 86pt ramp across 5 trading days, Mr Market is due for some degree of minor retracement. Hourly index/VIX charts are suggestive we're already rolling over.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, its midweek, and today really doesn't have much due in the way of data.
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It does appear we are rolling over - from yesterday's closing hour. Hourly MACD cycle is suggestive of greater downside potential this afternoon. Certainly I'd not be surprised if we close -70/100pts on the Dow.

Best guess....we hit sp'1800/1790, no later than Friday morning, before a latter day recovery into the weekend (next Monday, market is CLOSED)

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*London is a pretty stormy city today, more floods, and howling winds. I'm sure the power will keep going, but if I do drop offline....you will know why!
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Early mover: UGAZ +3%... I guess its still cold.

**no update from Oscar this morning, maybe the Fungus got to him?
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9.00am Futures back to flat.   UGAZ has flipped to -4%....that sure is a twitchy commodity.


9.35am..we're off and running..market re-testing the 1823 high....hourly MACD cycle STILL rolling over.

Bulls...beware!  I'm looking for a reversal here...to at least 1810 this afternoon. 


9.47am.. bull maniacs getting a chance to exit in the mid 1820s...after 1737..a mere week ago!

Weekly cycles back to outright bullish

With the break back above the 50 day MA of sp'1809, the weekly index cycles - lead by the sp'500, are turning back to outright bullish. There is an opportunity for a minor retracement to 1800/1780, but regardless of that, it looks like new historic highs will be hit in March/April.


sp'weekly8

sp'weekly4

Summary

A fourth day to the upside, but the hourly index/VIX charts are suggestive we're now due a retracement. Fib levels offer 1790/80 within the remainder of this week.
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Looking ahead

There really isn't much tomorrow. There is one fed official on the loose in the morning, the EIA oil report, and the US Treasury budget. None of those are likely to move the market much though.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until next Tuesday
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The Yellen era has begun

As I noted earlier today, we probably have 8 years of Yellen. Whatever you think of her economic views, we're going to have get used to her. Keep in mind that Yellen is due to speak to the US Senate this Thursday, so... there is plenty more of Yellen this week.

After an 86pt (5.0%) ramp from 1737 to 1823 across just 5 trading days, lets see if the bears can manage a push lower in the remainder of this week. Certainly, with no sig' QE, the bears...have a chance.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main equity indexes closed with rather significant gains, sp +19pts @ 1819. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retracement, before new historic highs are broken.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

A fourth consecutive day of very important gains, and the Wednesday low of sp'1737 now looks a very long way down. There looks to be zero chance of breaking that for at least a few months.

The daily close above the 50 day MA arguably 'seals the deal' for the bulls. Yes, there is a likely minor retracement due - maybe a few percent, but generally, we now have a very clear multi-week floor of 1737, and Mr Market looks set for much higher levels..possibly the low sp'1900s by late March/early April.
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Closing update from Mr TopStep



a little more later...