10am update - opening gains

Good morning. US indexes are moderately higher, with the sp' +0.6% in the low 1760s. Baring a break and hold into the 1770s, nothing has changed. Market looks set for another wave lower. VIX is -7% in the 18.50s, but still, that is 'relatively' holding up very well.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*I'm running on reduced power, so..I might be absent at times today.
--

Suffice to say, I can only ask...'so....do you want to go long here...in the 1760s?'.


Notable movers: TWTR -20%....

This is a laughable drop after +6% initially on earnings. I've not even looked, but is the PE around 5000, or 10000 right now?
-

Video update from Mr Permabull...who is bearish..



Make of that...what you will.

Amusing to see Oscar refer to them as 'baby bear flags'. I thought I was the only one that did that.
-

10.08am.. Well, its pretty simple from here...

1. market fails to break 1770, and rolls lower
2. market briefly breaks 1770..hits the short-stops..and then rolls lower
3. market breaks 1770..and jobs data 'acceptable' and new highs.

Certainly scenario 2 is possible..but there is an awful lot of resistance at the old floor of 1770.

The next few hours are going to be pretty important.


10.33am... well, we're coming up to the typical turn time of 11am...and we're a mere 3pts from the old 1770 floor..now resistance.

A lot of big money short-stops are going to be hit soon unless this levels out this morning.
-

Awaiting another major wave lower

Equity bulls continue to struggle. Despite an intraday recovery from sp'1737 to 1755, the broader trend remains starkly bearish. Baring a super strong January jobs number (>175k) this Friday, the market looks set for another very significant wave lower, down to the 1710/1690 zone.


sp'weekly7b

sp'weekly4c -the 'top is in' scenario

Summary

So, a second choppy day for US equities, but most notable..we did break a lower low in the morning.

re: weekly4c.  That remains a very alluring scenario. I will go with it fully, if we hit the lower weekly bollinger - currently sp'1687..but rising 10/12pts a week. So..next week, if we are around 1700, we'll probably have hit it.

Where it will get interesting, if on the next multi-week bounce. So long as we hold <1850, preferably 1775/1800, there is a very significant chance of a major collapse wave to the 1500s this late spring/early summer.


Looking ahead

We have trade data, productivity/costs, and the usual weekly jobs data. There are also two fed officials on the loose.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until next Monday. Bulls....beware!
--

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw a second day of chop, although new lows were broken, with sp'1737, but closing -3pts @ 1751. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.8%. Near term outlook is for another strong wave lower, to the 1710/1690 zone.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

So.. a bit of a choppy trading day..the second in a row.  Most notable, we did break a lower low, with sp'1737, although that was not confirmed by a new high in the VIX.

All things considered, near term looks weak, at least down to the 200 MA on the sp', currently 1709... but rising each day.
-

Closing update from Mr TopStep



--
a little more later...