With the market slipping from sp'1850 to the Monday low of 1739, the two broad trading/analytical groups are as polarised as ever. The remainder of this week should give one side a real scare, whether a re-take of 1770, or a further 50/70pts lower to test/break the 200 day MA.
sp'weekly7b
Summary
Since the sp'1850 micro double top high, we've seen two major daily drops. First, the Friday (Jan'24) drop of -38pts, and yesterdays move of -40pts. The price action we've seen in the past few weeks is new. It is something we never saw in 2013..or for much of 2012.
As a result of the recent downside, we are again seeing some calling an all out market crash. Others - most notably the guests on clown finance TV, are merely calling it as the latest 'buying opportunity'.
As it is, I think they are both wrong. Price action is different from the last year, but..we're sure not going to crash whilst the Fed are STILL throwing $65bn of QE at the capital markets each month.
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Update on the Nikkei
We're only two trading days into the month, but the Nikkei sure is looking ugly. We have strong initial downside follow through from the January decline.
The next real support isn't until around 12k. Clearly, the JCB need to spool up the printers another few notches. That will solve everything...not least the demographic problems.
Looking ahead
There is the ADP jobs report in pre-market, with ISM non-manu' at 10am. There are also a trio of fed officials on the loose tomorrow, and there is high risk some of the comments could upset Mr Market.
*there is sig' QE of around $4bn..bears need to be cautious...but the broader weekly trends should at least hold any bounce under the old broken floor of 1770.
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On track to hit the 200 day MA
All things considered, since the break of sp'1815 - which was indeed a key failure, the equity bears have been in control. Last week saw the bulls battle hard..only to again fail yesterday, with the break <1770. Now..the soft support is 1739..but really, it makes no technical sense for that to be a key multi-week floor.
Market looks set for another few days of declines, probably into the Friday morning jobs data. Whether we floor then...well, one day at a time...right? As for the crash callers, or those bull maniacs who believe in the 'new world economy', I continue to strive to find a place in between. Perhaps, I'm making progress.
Goodnight from London
