11am update - bearish breaks everywhere

The market has decisively broken, with a break of sp'1770, and also the taper'1 low of 1767. The VIX confirms it, with the first move into the 20s since early October 2013. Metals are catching a 'safety bid'.. Gold +$16.  The door is now open to 1710/1690 by end week.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

So...after a relatively flat open...the market has broken, and the bears are now in full control.

The BREAKS are decisive, so..I won't take any intra-day bounds seriously.

Any hope of a bounce to 1810/15...should be thrown out.
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Enjoy..the ride.


11.13am... sp'1761...and it sure looks kinda ugly. This morning is setting the tone for the week ahead.

Yes..there will be micro bounces...but 1800s..bye bye...

The 200 day MA is only 3.5% lower. whilst the VIX will probably be 25 or so.

*provisional break on the Dow..monthly...and that is where people should be looking right now.


11.24am.. real ugly morning..and we have strong confirmation via the bigger monthly cycles.

We have a VERY entertaining week ahead. Will be interesting to see how fast this can unravel, and just how high the VIX can spike..when we're in the 1710/1690 zone.

Metals slowly building gains.. Gold +$18
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11.32am.. so...we're holding significant gains...

The bear flags on the daily charts are confirmed...key lows been taken out..and now the mainstream will no doubt start talking about the 200 the day MA.... 1707.

For those with eyes on the bigger picture..the real action will likely be in April...

..as I like to say..'don't get lost in the minor noise!'

10am update - equity bulls in trouble

US equities begin the month with some minor weak chop. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$4. Perhaps most notable, the VIX has already broken into the 19s - above last weeks double top, the 20s will be hit on any break <sp'1767.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7b, HS

Summary

*ignoring the minor cycles this hour...
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We have clear BEAR flags on the daily indexes.

The weekly charts offer 10MA resistance around 1810..and frankly, even 1800 looks difficult right now.
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Key issue to note...the 200 day MA is now 1707, whilst the lower weekly bollinger has jumped to 1691.

Indeed..1710/1690 is the downside target zone, on any break <1767.
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Notable movers: FB, TWTR, both +1-2%, although in the grand scheme of things, those are not exactly the most dynamic of moves.
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10.01am  lousy ISM data...51... that sure is not helping...indexes in real danger here.

...eyes to the VIX 19.16....!

We're starting to confirm the bear flags...and VIX is similarly confirming it.

The door..is opening to 1710/1690


10.13am...BREAK BREAK BREAK

All thats left now is 1767..to confirm it.  VIX sure confirms the break.. 19.52


10.14am... TAPER'1 low...taken out.

Its GAME OVER bulls...game over.    Time to wave the white flag..and come back another 60/80pts lower.


10.20am.. fast and dirty....the whole week ahead....

*not surprisingly, whilst the market has taken out key support, clown finance TV is more concerned with superbowl commercials.


10.26am... VIX 20s...another KEY break.

First time in the 20s..since early October..over 17 weeks ago!

It sure looks like we're headed for 1710/1690..by end of this week.

*metals catching a 'safety' bid...Gold +$16..but still under old broken support.
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10.34am...thats right people..we're on the way.

For those with some time..go check the bigger monthly charts.. Dow is set for the first break since late 2012

VIX looks pretty strong overall. Any daily close..even the 19s would be important.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1786. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. There remains decreasing threat of a move to the 1810/15 zone, whilst a clear break would be <1767 - the taper'1 low.


sp'60min

Summary

A new trading month begins, and despite likely opening gains, equity bulls are facing increasing pressure.

The weekly charts are weak, and will open with the third consecutive bearish candle, which has not occurred since Nov'2012.

*something to watch this morning, the monthly charts...as we open a new month, look to see how much closer the MACD cycle is getting to a rollover.
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We have a long week ahead, the only QE-pomo to be concerned about is tomorrow and Wednesday, with the big jobs data..Friday.
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9.04am.. market weakening... we're now set to open fractionally lower.

Since we're a mere 12pts (0.6%) from breaking the key floor of 1770..it really won't take much to spiral things lower. As I will keep noting, any break of 1767, should open up a fast move to 1710/1690 'within days'..if the break occurs.

9.23am... metals picking up.. Gold $5,  whilst equities still slip,  sp -2pts.

9.35am.. new month.. and the bulls look largely absent.

Lower weekly bol' jumps to 1691.... with the 200 day MA @ 1707..those are the key targets..on a break of 1767.


9.50am.. ohoh, VIX breaks 19s

Thats pretty important! Bulls are in trouble.