12pm update - continued weak chop

The equity market continues to see weak price chop in the 1780s. Hourly cycles offer upside to 1810/15 within a day or two, which would equate to VIX 15/14.50. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil is holding notable gains of 1.5%.


sp'60min

Summary

*added a fib chart to hourly chart, you can see a lot of key levels 1809/18 zone.
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I would imagine a lot of people are getting lost in the minor noise today.  Bigger pressure remains..to the downside..equity bears should be looking to break that late this week..or next.
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Notable mover: AAPL, -7% or so, and is even getting featured on Drudgereport.

AAPL looks set to test the 200 day MA...in the 485/475 zone..within a week or so.

time for tea :)

11am update - choppy morning

Some choppy price action, but the short term upside pressure is clearly there. Natural upside to the sp'1810/15 zone remains best case for the bulls within the next few days. Metals have turned lower, Gold -$4, whilst Oil holds sig' gains of 1.6%. VIX is on the slide, -7%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Perhaps most notable...the drop in the VIX...seemingly headed for 15/14.50...a very natural level.

Yeah..the market seems to be acting 'naturally'...after many..many months of nonsense.
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*The sig' QE today..is no doubt helping.

AAPL is so far holding the big $500 floor, but looks likely to still close at least -2/3%
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11.25am..the chop continues..no doubt some are launching new index shorts  here..but that seems overly early.

Default view is to wait until AFTER the FOMC of Wed' 2pm.  Lets see if Mr Market can battle to 1810/15 at that time.  Between now and then...chop..with underlying upside.

VIX remains weak, -7.5%

Notable weakness: STX -10.5%.  Viable downside of another 10%..which would sync up well with the low sp'1700s by mid February. 

10am update - market wants to claw higher

Whilst the daily and weekly cycles are pushing lower, we're more than due a bounce...into the sp'1800s. Metals are higher, Gold +$3, whilst Oil has jumped a rather significant 1.5%. Equity bears look to have problems until Wednesday afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

With Durable Goods Orders coming in weak, the chatter is about a possibly weaker than expected Q4 GDP - due Thursday.

Then there is the issue of Fed taper'2. All things considered, ironically, it'd probably more upset the market if the fed don't cut QE.

However, another $5bn less of POMO money each money is going to be further lessen the chance of new highs.. >1850.
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Notable movers: AAPL, -7%,  STX -9%

STX, daily

I've yet to check the detailed results, but still...it remains under-valued relative to the main market. In terms of price...with a break under the 50 day MA...a natural move would now be to $47/45


10.37am... chop chop....but you can see...the pressure is there..for a bounce...

target remains 1810/15...by Wednesday afternoon.