Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes opened with minor chop, but with the break <sp'1830..the weakness gathered some momentum, sp -23pts @ 1819. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -1.4%. Baring a break below the big 1800 threshold, the primary upward trend remains intact.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

For the bears it was the first decent down day in over a month. I'll certainly call the daily net decline 'significant', but still, it wasn't anything too major. When was the last 2/3% daily decline? It has been so long, I can't even recall without looking at a chart.

The bears managed to break the 1830 support line today, but there are multiple walls of support at 1812/10/08..and then 1800.

I just can't see the bears being able to break all those levels of support. The fact that the VIX earlier today was in the 11s, was again a reminder of just how fearless this market is.
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a little more later...

Volatility battles into the low teens

With the sp' failing to hold 1830, the market slipped lower into the close, with the VIX managing its first significant gain in some weeks, settling +9.4% @ 13.28. It is particularly notable that the VIX was trading in the 11s in the morning session.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

Today sure turned out a lot more dynamic that originally expected. Despite marginally lower indexes in the morning the VIX had broken into the 11s.

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Baring a break <sp'1810/00, the VIX looks set to remain in the mid/low teens for some weeks..perhaps even the bulk of the spring.

Today's gain was interesting but still...VIX 13s are nothing for the equity bears to get excited about. The 20s do not look viable for some considerable time to come.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

With the sp'500 failing to hold 1830..the market slipped into the close, settling -23pts @ 1819. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both closed lower by around -1.4%. The near term outlook is for renewed upside later this week. VIX managed to hold gains, +10% in the mid 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

Certainly, the day turned out a lot more interesting than the open had suggested.

The break <1830 opened the door to 1818, and I will say, I'm kinda surprised to see that target hit today.

Baring a break <sp'1810/00, the primary trend unquestionably remains to the upside.

As I like to say....don't get lost in the bearish hysteria. That hasn't worked out so well in the past few years..and hey...there is HEAVY QE-pomo later this week...bears...beware!
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more later..on the VIX