3pm update - washing the weaker rats out

With the break under sp'1830, we're seeing the weaker bull rats get washed out of their short term positions. Somewhat understandably, a few of the equity bears are still screaming for sub 1800s, although that seems extremely unlikely. VIX is +6%, attempting a daily close in the 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, the little down wave has certainly made today a little more interesting.

Looks like sp'1818 will be hit..

Things only get real interesting if we put in a daily close under that level, and even then, there are a truck load of technical supports in the 1810/00 zone.

--

For the bears out there....

Dow, daily

Got to break <16100, to really make any dent in the primary trend.
--


3.05pm.. sp'1819...wow, just 1pt to go.

3.10pm.. with the fail of 1818....next support is the semi critical zone of 1812/10, with the 50% fib at 1808.

The bull rats are really getting a little scare today. No doubt..the crash calling maniacs will be out..guns blazing tonight.


3.29pm.. looks like we have some natural stability around sp'1817/19.

Anyone short..is getting the opportunity to exit, on the first decent down move in some weeks.


3.43pm... sp'1815...clearly..the big 1812/10 support zone is going to be tested.

VIX +12%...ohh the humanity, but still..we're only in the 13.60s....which itself is remarkably low.


3.49pm.. provisional turn in the 5/15min cycles...nothing confirmed yet....but...hell, those on the short side are getting the chance to exit. 


3.54pm...looks like we might have a floor... VIX starting to cool a little.

2pm update - original fib target back in play

With the break under sp'1830, the 38% fib retrace (1849/1767)..is back in play. Metals are picking up..Gold +$6, whilst Oil remains very weak, -1.0%. VIX has flipped moderately higher, +3.4% in the mid 12s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So...Mr market kicked the bears in the opening hour, and now is kicking out the weaker bulls.

Overall, the recent price action is still indicative of underlying strength.

The notion of a break <1800 still seems implausible.
--

Notable weakness: DRYS, -4.4%...as the BDI slips again
-


2.25pm...market just slowly melting lower...headed for 1818 or so...probably early tomorrow.

Anyone getting overly excited about the index declines of -0.9% needs to go stare at a weekly/monthly chart for the rest of the day.

What will be really telling is where we are at the Wednesday close..after the weeks biggest tranche of Benny/Janet Bux.

Despite the weakness, NFLX and TWTR both holding reasonable gains.


2.33pm... 7pts to go...to hit 1818..although it seems more likely tomorrow..than today.

1pm update - just another micro down wave

The sp' remains stuck within a very tight trading range of 1843/30. It is notable that despite the minor index weakness...the VIX remains fractionally red. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$4, whilst Oil remains especially weak, -0.7%.


sp'15min

Summary

The last 5 trading days - seen on the tiny 15min cycle, show just how stuck we are .

Yet..this is probably the best the bears can do. A break <1830 looks highly unlikely, and becomes less likely the longer we remain above 1830.

With heavy QE this Wed/Friday, equity bears face major problems as the week proceeds.
-

Notable weakness..DRYS, -3.7%.

Seen on the bigger weekly cycle, DRYS is now -25% since the brief break into the low 5s. Still, if the BDI can break back higher into the spring, DRYS will probably have doubled from current levels.


1.03pm.. sp'1830...bulls need to hold this..or the old fib target of 1818 comes back into play. hmm


1.07pm.. a marginal break of 1830..and the VIX is up..2%. Clearly, the collapse wave is here, right?

Well, that is what some are still yelling. Recent price action is still very broadly bullish though.  The real laughable aspect is that we're barely 1% from the historic highs.


1.19pm.. looks a pretty decisive break now..1828... 10pts further to go.  No doubt the long-stops are getting hit. 

Yes, its changed..and the old 1818 target is back. Even if that is hit though, it does nothing to dent the primary up trend.