12pm update - day five of chop

A fifth day of minor weak chop for the US equity indexes. The VIX is arguably telling the tale though, having already broken into the 11s. It remains a fearless market, with continued QE, how are the bears going to stop the sp'1900s from coming?


VIX, daily3

Summary

So..a touch of weakness in the indexes...yet the VIX has now slipped into the 11s.

My target zone for late spring remains sp'1950/2050. Would that equate to VIX in the 10s..or even single digits before the current multi-month cycle is done?

One thing is for sure, there seems ZERO point in being long VIX for another 2-3 months at least.
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NFLX, - support at the 100 day MA?

I'm not sure what to make of NFLX. It has a pretty clear channel break, but todays action is pretty bullish. Just needs to clear the daily 10MA of 351 - where the 50 day MA is also lurking. Without question though, Q4 earnings should be okay. At least unlike AMZN, it makes a profit..if small.


12.29pm..another micro down wave...sp'1836.. bulls still have a comfortable 6pts of buffer zone. Nothing has changed since last Tuesday. Algo-bots just playing stop-run games?

11am update - bull flags all over the place

Whilst the indexes have turned slightly positive - but still in general chop mode, the daily charts are offering pretty clear bull flags into late Jan/early Feb. It remains highly improbable that we'll be breaking back under sp'1800 any time soon.


dow'daily

USO, daily

Summary

*Oil remains weak, -0.9%.
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Price action remains strong..and yet I'm still seeing people tout major declines within the next few weeks.

Huh? How are we going to see consistent major declines, when we have this sort of price action.

After all, the past week - if you look at the daily MACD cycle, is the DOWN cycle. A down cycle..where we are a mere 6pts from the historic high.
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Notable strength: NFLX +3.4%  (bullish, house of cards?)

10am update - new week, same chop

The market opens with the same weak minor chop that we saw for much of last week. This still appears to be the best the bears can muster. Metals and Oil are both moderately lower. With heavy QE-pomo later this week, equity bears face the usual problems.


sp'60min

Summary
 
*VIX has broken into the 11s...despite the main indexes being moderately red. Market remains utterly fearless.
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Not the most exciting of opens, but as ever..there is action if you look hard enough. I realise there is a lot of talk - not least using the 1929 analogy, but frankly, that seems like the same crazy talk we've seen since early 2012.

Even hitting 1810/00 looks...very difficult this week.

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*notable strength in Ford, and we already have a brief break over the 50day MA.

Ford, daily

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stay tuned!
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Lots of moverment in the tech-hardware...

BBRY, CREE, both -6%.
JNPR, +9% (earnings?)

Tech behemoth...HPQ +3.5%. Ironically, since it was booted from the Dow index, the stock price has done well.


10.30am...and the indexes take out the Friday high...sp'1843...it'd be pretty impressive if the bull maniacs can break 1850 today.

VIX told the tale at the open...with the break into the 11s.