Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed with some chop, sp -0.4pts @ 1837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and unchanged respectively. There appears relatively easy upside to the sp'1850s within the next few trading days, and possibly 1860/80 before the next minor top is complete.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

Little to add, on what was a pretty quiet day in market land.
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We arguably still have bull flags on just about all the indexes, and there is pretty easy upside of 2-3% into end January. The transports looks especially strong, and is holding the up trend from early October.

Certainly though, the sp'1900s look unlikely in the current wave.
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a little more later...

Volatility fails to hold minor gains

Despite a touch of weakness across the day, the VIX was itself weak, settling -0.4% @ 12.87. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 14/11 zone. It continues to look increasingly unlikely that the VIX will be breaking above 20 in the next down wave of late Jan/early February.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Next to nothing to add on the VIX.

If sp'1850s later this week..or early next, then VIX will surely drop into the low 12s/11s..at least briefly.
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more later, on what remain..pretty strong indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed, with the sp -0.4pts @ 1837, whilst the Dow slipped 69pts. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and unchanged respectively. The near term remains a little choppy, but with underlying upside still very much the case.


sp'60min

Summary

A quiet day...where was everyone today?
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The price action today was yet another classic example of how the bears get teased every so often, with little drops of 5, 10pts..only to see the market turn right back upward.

Broader trend remains to the upside...a weekly close in the 1850s remains very likely.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.