3pm update - closing hour upside

The smaller 5/15min index cycles are prone to breaking to the upside into the close, and a daily close in the low sp'1840s remains viable. Gold and Oil are both weak, lower by -0.7% and -1.5% respectively. VIX continues to reflect a market that has little concern about anything for some weeks to come.


sp'60min

Summary

The situation is very much like yesterday. Bears again showed how weak they are, with the early
morning drop to 1831..only to be swiftly flipped to 1840.

Next issue for the market will be the Friday jobs data, and with sig' QE, even if the market doesn't particularly like the number, what sell side there is..will be greatly negated.

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Arguably, stock of the day is UAL, +5.9%...now in the $41s, only another $7 to go
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3.03pm.. VIX looks set to slip fractionally red into the close.


3.25pm...well, hopes of the 1840s can be just about thrown out. Issue now..does 1831 hold.

no doubt, some will be screaming for the 1750s again this evening.


3.33pm..5min cycle offering a floor @ 1832.   Buy the dip? ;0

3.48pm.. nasty market...doing a short-stop run...back to 1836....surely not the 1840s at the close? 

3.54pm.. 15min cycle set to go + cycle at the Thursday open...bears beware!

2pm update - time for some fed speak

Its that time of the month, time to find out what the edited/censored FOMC minutes were from the last month. So long as the market can hold the earlier low of sp'1831 - seemingly likely, equity bulls have little to be concerned about. Metals are sure to get a bit twitchy this hour...Gold currently -$6


sp'60min

Summary

No doubt, the rest of the day will see the mainstream swing to talk of when the next QE-taper might be.

Best guess remains, we close the day in the sp'1840/45 zone, with 1850s by the Friday close.
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*notable strength: UAL, +4.8%, and continuing to strength.

The upper 40s are well within range.
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2.07pm.. well, the usual nonsense from the Fed, inc' a probable eventual target of 6.0% headline unemployment. The comedy aspect was the note that the fed debated the participation rate issue.

Anyway, market is holding together, and a close in the 1840s..very likely.
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UAL continues to build gains....+5.6%...

Notable weakness in the coal miners...


2.19pm.. chop chop...+3pts...-2pts.. +2pts... fun huh?

The 1840s..are a'coming....and you know what follows that?

1pm update - ten hours of minor chop

We've had around ten hours of minor price chop in the sp'1830s. It is very likely just a baby bull flag, with upside into the 1850s by the Friday close. Metals are weak, Gold -$10, Silver -2.3%.


sp'60min

Summary

Just another hour until the FOMC minutes...where no doubt, the algo-bots will run rampant for a little while, as the mainstream start wondering about taper part'2.
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Notable strength: UAL,

No doubt, part of the rise is due to continuing weakness in Oil prices. Upside target - by late spring, remains the 2007 double top of $48