Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1833. Metals are similarly weak, with Gold -$4. Equity bulls need to hold the recent 1823 low, but even then..the real support is not until 1810/00.
sp'60min
Summary
*ADP jobs data came in better than expected @ 238k.
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So, we're set to open a little lower, but really, price formation is a bull flag on the hourly cycle, and baring a break <1830, and then 1823, we should in theory just battle upward as the day progresses.
Market has the FOMC minutes report to deal with at 2pm..so..look for that as the excuse for a latter day ramp.
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notable early mover: TWTR -4%, F, +1.3%, although the latter is still holding within a bear flag.
For the equity bulls out there, today was just another day...one of hundreds across the past 4.8yrs, where the market has battled upward. Of course, the QE continues, and today's $2-3bn dose no doubt helped take the edge off what little selling is going on.
sp'weekly8
Summary
There was a bizarrely large amount of bearish talk across the past weekend about how we're going to see a correction into the 1750s..or even lower. As I keep noting...price action simply doesn't suggest that. Bears lack any downside power..and hey..the QE continues!
There is the increasing possibility that we won't even breach <1800 until the summer. How does that sound?
Looking ahead
Tomorrow will see the ADP jobs data - released pre-market, that should be enough to set the tone for much of the day. However, far more important, we have the FOMC minutes (2pm), which will no doubt get everyone into renewed taper talk. A further 10/15bn looks very likely, but probably not until March/April.
Regardless, I suspect the market will use any talk of QE-taper as a positive (ohh the irony!)..and a Wednesday close in the 1850s is very viable.
*next sig' QE is not until Friday
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Goodnight from London
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Video update from Oscar
Oscar was bearish for Tuesday, which was surprising to me, since his Trans' chart was highly suggestive of a hold on support. I think his near term ceiling on the sp' is around 1900 by early Feb - not that he has yet said it..but that is where the top channel is on his chart.
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The main indexes all closed moderately higher, with the sp +11pts @ 1837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled up by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for the sp' to close the week in the 1850s, and eventually battle into the 1860/80 zone before end month.
sp'daily5
Dow
Trans
Summary
Not much to add.
We have what I believe are bull flags on the daily charts, and there is clear upside of 2-3% for most indexes.
There is little reason why the market won't close this week in the sp'1850s, along with VIX 12/11s.
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