3pm update - weakness into the close

The smaller 15min index cycle looks like a clear bear flag, with a probable snap lower into the close, although the 1770s look somewhat out of range. The metals are weakening, with Gold -$10. VIX is battling for a daily close in the low 15s.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

Well, it looks like we have a very reasonable chance of closing in the 1782/78 range today, with VIX 15s.

I am increasingly concerned at the bearish hysteria out there. We're barely 2% from the historic high, and people are now calling for big multi week drops into the low 1700s by early January.
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Primary trend remains UP...and I shall be highlighting that tomorrow morning..when I'm guessing we floor in the low 1770s.

updates into the close.....


3.15pm.. breaking through the hourly 200MA 1786...a further 6-8pts viable into the close.

As ever, always threat of gap higher (although I'd guess no)...and bears might be wise to consider exiting into the close.


3.23pm.. in the previous ABC wave of late oct/early nov...the C wave was 6pts lower than A floor...

right now..that'd be equivalent to sp'1773..by early tomorrow.

So..BEST guess..we floor in the 1774/72 zone tomorrow, by 11am..and then..UP.

There can be NO Excuses for those on the short side right now.


3.32pm.. 1784...another 2-6pts to go...with a minor drop Thursday..by 11am.

NO EXCUSES ..bears!

NONE.


3.39pm.. further we fall into the close..the better chance of low 1770s tomorrow.

considering the broader daily charts...very best case, a test of the 50 day MA @ 1760..but I do not see that as viable.

Best guess remains.. Thursday .11am...1774/72.


3.46pm...Well, we're in the end day target zone of 1782/78

Now its a case of how low we are tomorrow morning.

*clown finance TV hosts seem to be getting a bit rattled. Gods forbid..a close -1% or more !


3.51pm.. a close in the upper 1770s would be a real bonus for the bears.

On any basis..should see at least 'some' follow through early Thursday.....go bears !!!

2pm update - micro bounce for the bulls

The market is seeing a natural bounce after the sp'1786 floor. Further chop into the close seems likely. Bears should battle for <1785, which will open up 1775/70 early Thursday. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6, whilst Oil is -1%. VIX is fighting for a close in the low 15s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*VIX appears stuck around the old break/gap level...not surprising.
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For many out there, today is turning out to be a real relief.

On balance, we should see further downside early Thursday, a natural floor would be around 10/11am, in the low 1770s.

Without question though..the bigger trend remains...UP.


2.27pm.. a clear bear flag on the 15min cycle. A close in the 1770s looks..difficult, but further declines tomorrow look very viable.

Notable strength...TWTR, still holding fractional gains of 0.7% in the $52s.

1pm update - afternoon battle

The rest of the day looks set for an interesting battle, with the bears aiming for a break into the 1770s, whilst the bulls fight to hold Dow 15800. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, and remains vulnerable into year end. Even the momo stocks are starting to turn red, ohh the humanity!


sp'60min

Dow, daily

Summary

Seeking general weakness into early Thursday, before the next heavy QE-pomo.

A break of the 1779 low looks likely, but the low 1770s should hold in the current down wave.
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No doubt, a whole raft of doomers will be posting apocalyptic charts this evening...as I like to say...

Don't get lost in the bearish hysteria!