Monday, 2 December 2013

3pm update - micro ramp into the close?

The smaller 5/15min index cycles are arguably close to flooring, a little ramp into the close is viable, ahead of heavy QE tomorrow. Metals remain sharply lower, Gold -$30, Silver -4%. VIX is battling to hold a 1% gain into the close.


sp'60min (with metals)


Summary

I see some chatter out there trying to work out what is going on in terms of the micro cycles.

Really, I think it is over thinking things.

Primary trend remains to the upside...and the monthly charts are now offering Dow 16500, with Sp'1840s...this month!
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updates into the close...


3.10pm.. price action is very muted..a close <1800.. next to impossible.

Micro 5/15min cycles continue to offer threat of a jump into the close. >1808/10


3.37pm..hmm..so much for the micro ramp..instead...a snap to 1800. Kinda interesting..but changes nothing in the bigger picture.

3.43pm..ohh the humanity. sp -0.2%.  Bears lost in hysteria..yet?
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2pm update - minor chop

The main indexes continue to see minor chop, whilst the metals are still struggling to find an intraday floor. Gold -$27, Silver -3.3%, whilst the miners..GDX -4.4%. With heavy QE-pomo tomorrow, equity bears have little hope of even moderate downside in the immediate term.


sp'60min (with metals)


Summary

*metals..overlaid with the sp'500.....gold/silver really are struggling, and my earlier (short-side) exit now looks a fair way higher!

Still..the 19s are possible tomorrow, if Mr Market ramps...on a QE fuelled ramp.
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1pm update - those poor miners!

Whilst the main indexes continue to see minor chop, the real action remains in the metals and the miners, the latter of which are seeing very significant declines. The gold miner ETF of GDX is -4%, and a break into the teens looks viable this month..even week.


GDX, daily



SLV'60min


Summary

*having bailed on SLV earlier, I'm still looking to jump back in..but at a higher level. Considering the sizable QE tomorrow..equities look set to jump into the 1815/25 zone..and that might be enough to suck the metals (briefly) higher.

Target..slv 18.95/19.05...then 17.
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Notable strength in Seagate (STX), +2.5%


STX is a $100 stock in 2015. Go look at the balance sheet.  Price action is strong...holding above the old ceiling - now support. Upside into the 60s by late spring.