Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed a little lower, sp -6pts @ 1781. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -0.3% and -0.14% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, with upside into the sp'1810/20s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

I realise some equity bears will be getting a little excited at today's red close, but really..the declines were minor, and we have a VIX which closed flat.

The hourly charts are now arguably oversold, and we look set for significant upside ..back in the sp'1800s by late Friday..or early next week.

With next week being a holiday week, I see next to zero hope that the equity bears will be able to manage a 1% decline until early December.
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a little more later...

Volatility fractionally higher

Despite the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX only managed to close fractionally higher, +0.1% @ 13.40. Near term outlook remains for the VIX to remain in a tight 13/11 range. VIX continues to reflect an essentially fearless market.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

I think the VIX tells the story of today. Despite a little post-FOMC weakness..with the Tuesday low of sp'1784 being broken...the VIX continues to suggest the market is fearless.

Equity bears really need to be mindful of the closing black-fail daily candle. It does not bode well for tomorrow..or Friday.

Again, it remains highly implausible to believe VIX will be >20..until at least mid/late Jan'2014.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw some interesting price action, with some post-FOMC downside to sp'1777, and closing -6pts @ 1781. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed lower by -0.3% and -0.15% respectively. Near term upside is the sp'1810/20 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

A pretty good day to watch..and even be part of.

The indexes did break the Tuesday low - somewhat surprising, but really, the VIX indicates a fearless market, and I can't today's moderate declines seriously.

Seeking a break back into the sp'1800s before the Friday close.
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*I exited an SLV-short..will look to pick that up again on any bounce..if there is one.

more later..on the VIX