Wednesday, 20 November 2013

12pm update - underlying upside pressure

The indexes continue to appear to be building upside..in a sub'5 wave...with a snap higher viable this afternoon. A daily close in the sp'1800s..with Dow 16k, looks very viable. Metals remain weak, in a starkly bearish mid term trend.


sp'60min


GLD, daily


Summary

Not much to add.

Market appears to just be quietly awaiting the FOMC press release at 2pm. I have to guess we'll see further equity upside into the close.
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VIX update from Mr T.



Time for lunch :)

11am update - chop ahead of the FOMC

The indexes are seeing some minor price chop ahead of this afternoons FOMC press release. Equity bulls should be able to hold the Tuesday sp'1784 low, and a daily close in the 1800s is viable. Metals are seeing a bounce after early declines, but the broader trend remains very weak.


sp'60min



Summary

So...a few more hours of minor chop..and then we'll see if Mr Market can use it as an excuse to ramp for the rest of the week. Things only get interesting if <1784..which does seem unlikely.

*as for my Silver short, I'm looking for an exit in the SLV 19.10/18.90 zone, that seems viable tomorrow..if the broader trend continues.
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Notable weakness in TSLA and TWTR.

TWTR, daily


A daily close <$40...probably offers an easy $10 lower to $30 by end year..regardless of main market strength.

10am update - metals on the slide

Whilst the main indexes try to build minor gains this morning, the real action is in the precious metals market. Gold and Silver are both significantly lower, and have both taken out key support. There is very significant risk of a major snap lower - on the scale that we saw this April and June.


GLD, daily


SLV, daily'3


Summary

*I remain short Silver (via SLV)..and will be looking to dance in/out of that trade across the weeks/months ahead.

Downside targets remain GLD 105/95 and SLV 12/10. - probably sometime in 2014.
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As for the rest of the market.. more later!


TSLA, looking ugly as ever...


Target remains 110/100..not far to go really. I'm still wondering about Carboni's target of $60. Oh well, lets see what sort of bounce we get off the 200 day MA.
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10.32am... black candle on the VIX...and indexes trying to break higher.

Equity bears really don't look likely to break <1784.

Metals seeing a bounce off the opening low, but the bigger trend sure looks bearish. Will be interesting to see the reaction from the FOMC minutes later today.