sp'60min
Summary
Today will be all about the FOMC minutes..due at 2pm.
Considering the hourly..and daily charts..I'm guessing we'll rally on whatever nonsense the Fed has to say.
--
Wednesday, 20 November 2013
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open around 1788. Metals are weak..Gold -$12, Silver -0.5%. Equity bears will likely find it tough to break below the 1784 low. New highs..are expected in the remainder of the week.
sp'60min
Summary
Today will be all about the FOMC minutes..due at 2pm.
Considering the hourly..and daily charts..I'm guessing we'll rally on whatever nonsense the Fed has to say.
--
sp'60min
Summary
Today will be all about the FOMC minutes..due at 2pm.
Considering the hourly..and daily charts..I'm guessing we'll rally on whatever nonsense the Fed has to say.
--
Dr Copper and Oil remain very weak
Whilst equities remain within their broad upward trend, it remains notable that two of the biggest economic commodity indicators - Copper and WTIC OIl, remain very weak, with both looking set for lower levels in the near/mid term.
Copper, monthly
WTIC Oil, monthly'2
Summary
A bit of a choppy..and dull Tuesday.
-
Meanwhile, we do indeed have Copper and Oil still looking weak. Copper is especially something that interest me - since I'm currently short Silver (via SLV).
A break <$3 for Copper would bode badly for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver likely to take out their June lows.
As for Oil, as many realise, lower oil prices are unquestionably a good thing for the broader economy. That would most certainly include the mining stocks..who are of course trying to cope with lower metal prices.
Looking ahead
Wednesday should be a lot more active. We have retail sales data in the morning, and Mr Market should at least be paying some attention to that. However, more importantly...we have the FOMC minutes..at 2pm.
No doubt the algo-bots will be in full search/analyse mode. I think there is a very strong likelihood market will rally on whatever the press release might say.
-
Come back next year
Broadly speaking...I simply don't see anything 'significant' for the bears until Jan/Feb 2014 - when the debt ceiling/budget issues again arise. Yet, even that might only amount to a 4-6% drop, and that would likely begin from levels higher than where we currently are.
As I will keep saying, for most of the equity bears out there, it is largely a case of remaining on 'survival mode' until we see a clear intermediate top put in.
Goodnight from London
Copper, monthly
WTIC Oil, monthly'2
Summary
A bit of a choppy..and dull Tuesday.
-
Meanwhile, we do indeed have Copper and Oil still looking weak. Copper is especially something that interest me - since I'm currently short Silver (via SLV).
A break <$3 for Copper would bode badly for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver likely to take out their June lows.
As for Oil, as many realise, lower oil prices are unquestionably a good thing for the broader economy. That would most certainly include the mining stocks..who are of course trying to cope with lower metal prices.
Looking ahead
Wednesday should be a lot more active. We have retail sales data in the morning, and Mr Market should at least be paying some attention to that. However, more importantly...we have the FOMC minutes..at 2pm.
No doubt the algo-bots will be in full search/analyse mode. I think there is a very strong likelihood market will rally on whatever the press release might say.
-
Come back next year
Broadly speaking...I simply don't see anything 'significant' for the bears until Jan/Feb 2014 - when the debt ceiling/budget issues again arise. Yet, even that might only amount to a 4-6% drop, and that would likely begin from levels higher than where we currently are.
As I will keep saying, for most of the equity bears out there, it is largely a case of remaining on 'survival mode' until we see a clear intermediate top put in.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
The main indexes closed somewhat weak, with the sp -3pts @ 1787. The two leaders - Trans/R2K closed -1.0% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed moderate upside, to the sp'1810/30 zone by early December.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Primary trend remains unquestionably to the upside.
Equity bears continue to get periodically teased..only for the market to resume higher. With the QE fuel likely to continue for a very considerable time to come (end 2014, according to Fed 'Evans), this situation looks unlikely to change until the late spring at the earliest.
Even then, it might take a good 2-3 months for the market to form a choppy intermediate top - as was the case in summer 2011.
I am in no mood to get involved on the short side of the indexes for another 4-6 months..at the earliest.
-
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
Primary trend remains unquestionably to the upside.
Equity bears continue to get periodically teased..only for the market to resume higher. With the QE fuel likely to continue for a very considerable time to come (end 2014, according to Fed 'Evans), this situation looks unlikely to change until the late spring at the earliest.
Even then, it might take a good 2-3 months for the market to form a choppy intermediate top - as was the case in summer 2011.
I am in no mood to get involved on the short side of the indexes for another 4-6 months..at the earliest.
-
a little more later...
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