Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open around 1748. Metals are higher, Gold +$13 (1.0%). Oil is again weak, -0.2%. Market looks set to break into the 1750s today, the hourly charts are even offering the 1760s late today/early Wednesday.


sp'60min


Summary

*monthly jobs data for Sept':  142k job gains, headline rate, falls to 7.2%. The gains are a clear 40k shy of what the market was looking for.
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So...a lousy jobs number, but hey, that means QE will just continue longer...which is bullish, right?

*notable movers; NFLX +$30 @ 385 (although that is $10 below the AH high),   APPL +6 @ 527


9.33am.. after an opening bell that seemed to last hours...sp'1750s.

So...the top callers will be out in force across today/tomorrow.

ZERO reason why the market will see a multi-month top at this level.

Moving higher into November

US equities remain on a very broad upward trend, that extends back to the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074. The sp'1800s look viable in November, and if the mainstream get a little more confident, the 1900s are briefly viable before some understandable year end profit taking.


sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook


Summary

The weekly rainbow charts are showing the third consecutive green candle, and this market is unquestionably outright bullish. A weekly close in the 1755/65 zone looks very likely, with the 1800s viable in November.


Netflix - the hysteria returns in full

With EPS of 52 cents, NFLX has soared in AH trading, settling around $40 (11%) higher at $394. There seems little doubt the $400s will be hit early tomorrow, and then you'll start to see the mainstream wonder about $500 next year.

As I noted earlier today, no doubt some bears who were short this hysteria-stock on margin, will have seen their trading accounts get blown up. The thing is, its not like the primary trend in NFLX is down! Why would anyone consider shorting it at all?

A final note on the EPS of 52 cents. Lets call it 50, x4.. giving $2 per year. With a $400 stock price, that is a PE ratio of 200. I could drone on about 'fair value' for page after page, suffice to say, in any 'normal' market, NFLX would be trading around a tenth of the current price.

NFLX, $40, with a PE of 20, and that ladies and gentleman..would indeed be a normal price in a normal market, but of course..we sure as hell don't have that right now.


World Equity indexes continue to look very strong

I could pick any of the ten indexes that I regularly highlight, they all look pretty much outright bullish. Even the imploded Greek economy has a market that is soaring...

Greece, monthly, 20yr


As I noted over a week ago, first target zone is 1200/1300, after that...2500. The other EU PIIGS of Italy and Spain look much the same. For those with eyes on the bigger picture, I think the direction for the US market is pretty clear.


Looking ahead

Tomorrow will see the release of the delayed Sept' jobs data. Market is seeking 185k gains, with a static rate of 7.3%. Those are not bold targets.

*next QE-pomo is not until Wednesday.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed largely unchanged, with the sp' fractionally higher at 1744. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.4% and -0.2% respectively. The broader market trend remains very bullish, and the sp'1800s look viable in November.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

A very quiet day to start the week, and the closing Doji candle on the sp'500 was somewhat appropriate.

No doubt, many traders are just waiting for the delayed Sept' jobs data.
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a little more later..