2pm update - daily charts showing a bull failure

Whilst the bulls battle to hold the mid sp'1630s, the daily charts are looking lousy from the bullish perspective. Market remains in a broad down trend from the 1709 high, and today's candle so far looks like a complete fail. VIX is trying to build gains..of almost 2% in the mid 17s.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Still plenty of time for the bulls to battle back into the 1640s..but things sure are unstable.

As earlier showed, market can drop 1% on a mere comment.

How will it react if actual missiles start flying (and Israeli 'test' flights don't count!) ?
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I remain on the sidelines, and would much prefer to launch a re-short in the sp'1665/70 area..but that hope gets thrown out on ANY break <1627.


2.14pm.. ohoh, market trying to do one its usual stupid afternoon ramps. Bulls should be content with daily close in the 1640s..considering how twitchy things are today.


2.32pm...battling it out in the mid 1630s.

Considering the 15/60min MACD cycle..I have to guess the bulls manage to hold things together into the close. Yet, even if i wasn't such a permabear..I'd not be inclined to go long now.

1pm update - bulls struggling

The market is really starting to look weak, although sp'1627 remains the key level for bears to break..and close under. Metals holding gains, Gold +$14, with Oil +0.3% VIX is a touch higher in the low 17s, but no real sign of concern..yet.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, the current weakness is something of a surprise, although I realise a fair few were shorting the open.
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Any break <sp'1627..and things really get interesting

*Dow goes red. A fifth weekly decline, would be the first since May 2011.

*it again lends some credence that what we're seeing lately might be something analogous to the multi-month decline of summer/autumn 2011
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1.33pm.. market looks like it is forming a floor in the mid 1630s.

Baring another 'Syria' comment, market will be vulnerable to the often latter day ramp. A close in the 1650s though...looks out of range.

12pm update - Boehner flips over the cart

The bulls were comfortably holding gains...until one of the US political maniacs proclaims he is bullish Syria-war. The headlines indexes have lost half their gains. Metals are benefiting, with Gold +$13, and Oil now +0.25%.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Its turning out to be a bit of a mess.

Certainly though, I'm still not getting involved. Bears need good follow through, and I just don't see that viable today.

Oh well, we shall see.


VIX update from Mr P.



time to cook!
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12.23pm... Despite a little more weakness, I'm still guessing the hourly 10MA holds...1637.