11am update - market teasing the bears

The main indexes see a minor slip from sp'1651 to 1645, but its very likely just a little tease. There is no power on the downside likely today..or tomorrow. Bulls look set for a close in the 1650s..and that should open up 1665/70 by early Thursday. Metals are holding gains.


sp'60min

sp'daily4b

Summary

Indeed, I think Mr Market has just teased the bears..with further upside/melt across the day.

Surely, no point in getting involved today.

VIX is -2.5% or so...a close in the 15s would certainly be suggestive of further equity gains for Wednesday.


11.24am..hmm, interesting..we're seeing the biggest 15min drop in some days...1642s.

A break <1636 would make things real interesting. Regardless, I ain't getting involved.

 *it would seem market is annoyed with Boehner pro-war comments 


11.31am.. sp'1639s...hmm..and cycle about to go negative. Well, those shorting the open...are enjoying this little drop..the biggest 15min intra-day drop in weeks.perhaps months.

10am update - breaking into the 1650s

The main indexes are higher by around 1%, although the Trans/R2K are +1.3/1.5%. VIX is naturally lower by 4%. Bulls look set for further gains across the next day or two. Precious metals are higher, especially Silver, +4%.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*special note...

There are some VERY interesting issues right now with the weekly/monthly charts, but more on those..across the day.
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Suffice to say, we're seeing a stupid lurch higher to start a short week. I've little doubt the QE will help prop up this nonsense across ALL of today..and into tomorrow.

I most certainly will not be re-shorting the opening gains. I've seen this picture before, and it rarely works out well for the bears.
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sp'weekly7

Despite the gains..a red candle....and the 10MA should be 'the wall' to contain this latest nonsense.

*note the lower weekly bol..jumps..into the upper 1570s.
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10.36am... a bit of minor chop...enticing a few bears..but I am not biting.

If we saw 5 waves down..across 3 weeks, then a corrective bounce is going to take at least 1..maybe even 2 weeks! The notion that this is going to fail today...I don't think so.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly higher, sp +16pts, we're set to open around 1648. Precious metals are moderately higher, Gold +$6, whilst Oil is a touch lower, on reduced Syria war fears. Bulls look set for 2-3 days of gains..to the first gap of sp'1655/65


sp'60min

Summary

So..we're set to open as expected in the upper 1640s. and the 1650s look very likely by 10/11am.

VIX will probably be in the low 16s..perhaps 15.75 area.
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*there is $5bn of QE-pomo this morning and that should be more than enough to help sustain the gains, regardless of whether there is any buying volume or not.
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*I am content to remain on the sidelines until tomorrow..or mid morning Thursday. A re-short in the 1660s is the target, with VIX 15.0.