Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open around 1693. All the smaller cycles are offering broad downside across the day. With no QE to be concerned about until next Thursday, bears have a window of opportunity.


sp'60min

Summary

So..moderate declines to start the day. Certainly nothing dramtic, but its a start, and it won't be easy for the bull maniacs to claw back over 1700.

The hourly MACD cycle should be rolling over across the morning, with more significant downside later this afternoon.

Frankly..everything is set up for the bears, so they had better not waste today.
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Metals are a touch lower, but Oil is higher again, although $110 looks off the agenda for some weeks, perhaps a few months.

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*I am short the indexes..and seeking to hold until the sp'1670s. That sure won't be easy today, but is very viable early next week.

Bears need to hold under sp'1700

The bears should be seeking to at least close the market under the sp'1700 level this Friday. If that is achieved, it will start to confirm that sp'1709 was indeed a mid-term cycle peak. Target downside is 1600/1550 into September, with VIX 'briefly' in the low 20s.


sp'weekly7 - mid term bearish outlook

Summary

So, despite the index gains, we still have a blue candle on the weekly 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) chart, and so long as the market closes the week <sp'1700, we'll keep that initial sign of a market turn.

Considering the 149pt ramp from 1560, I do indeed think the top is in, and that now its just a case of when we start seeing a few bigger daily declines.


Looking ahead

There is no major econ-data tomorrow.

*There is ZERO QE-pomo tomorrow, and interestingly (and I do think its rather important), there is no sig' QE until next Thursday.

From a QE perspective, the bears now have a 4 day window to knock the indexes lower. Next Thurs/Friday both have sig' QEs, so I'd have to assume next week ends on a slightly upward note.

Best bear case in the next few days is the 1660/50 zone- where the 50 day MA is lurking. That won't be easy though.
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A H/S scenario to keep in mind, not least if we do break lower tomorrow/early next week, but get stuck around 1675.

sp'60min'4

It would sync up well with no QE until Thursday, with moderate upside - back to 1695/1700, before a post-opex move down to the 1650/40s.

One final chart on fib levels, where both the mid 1670s...and the low 1650s (where the 50 day is lurking) are both kinda good targets for the next week or two.

sp'daily3

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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately higher, but certainly, the gains were nothing for the bulls to get excited about. The sp'500 settled at 1697. The market leaders - Trans/R2K, closed with stronger gains of 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.


Sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

So..the 3 day down cycle has been countered with one day of moderate gains.

Considering the bigger weekly cycle charts, I'm inclined to hold to a generally bearish outlook into mid-September, and I remain holding to the notion that sp'1709 was indeed the high of the recent up wave.

Despite the index gains, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle again ticked lower, and we remain in a moderately bearish down cycle.
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*I am heavy short the indexes overnight, seeking an exit in the sp'1670s, with VIX 14/15

a little more later...