The bulls are in their seventh consecutive week to the upside, but we're now seeing increasing signs of weakness. This is especially the case for the two market leaders - Transports and Rus'2000. A few more days, and a short-term ceiling should become apparent.
sp'weekly7 - bearish mid term
sp'weekly8 - bullish mid term
Summary
The above two outlooks are what I am keeping in mind for the coming few months.
Broadly, the issue is whether a key multi-month high has been/about to be put in.
My best guess is that weekly'8 is the outlook to go with. That will indeed be seeking a multi-week down cycle into September, but then broad..and very significant upside into spring 2014.
If indeed the second outlook occurs, then the bears really don't have much to look forward to across the next 6-9 months. SP'500 in the low 2000s seems very viable next spring, and that's even if the Fed reduce (if temporarily) QE to $60bn a month.
Looking ahead
Again, there is very little econ-data/news due tomorrow. Neither is there any significant QE-pomo.
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So..I remain on the sidelines, and am still seeking an index short from the sp'1715/25 level. Considering there is a mid-sized QE on Thursday, I'm inclined to wait until then, and see how the price action is at that time.
If the market does max out this week, first downside target within the next week or two, will be the sp'1660/50 zone, where there are a few price-attractors..not least the rising 50 day MA.
Goodnight from London
