Volatility holds moderate gains

With the main indexes weak across the day, the VIX managed to finally hold onto some gains, settling +7.4% @ 12.72. Near term trend though is still very choppy, and if the sp'1715/25 zone is hit, VIX could again briefly slip into the 11s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, moderate gains for the VIX, but it still remains in the bizarrely low 12s. Even the 14/15s remain 'difficult' in the very near term.

Its going to take some kind of major market upset just to briefly break back into the 20s. Right now, that doesn't look viable until mid September.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed lower, but the declines were relatively moderate, with the sp -10pts @ 1697. The market leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -1.3% and -1.0% respectively. A final small wave to the sp'1715/25 target zone still seems likely within the next two trading days.


sp'60min

Summary

As I've seen a few hundred times in the past few years, the morning declines levelled out by 11am..and then it was merely a case of when..not if...the latter day recovery would begin.

With the sp' closing above the important lower channel line, it would seem we'll get another wave higher across Wed/Thursday.

*considering there is a mid-sized QE of $3bn on Thursday, I'll be inclined to wait until that is out of the way.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - closing hour recovery?

The market remains moderately lower, with the sp at 1696.VIX is +7% or so, but is still in the 12s. Hourly charts are still offering significant upside across Wed/Thursday, so long as the market can close today >1695. Metals remain weak, Gold -$17


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX is making a play to take out the morning high, but from an hourly cycle perspective, it looks maxed out.
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Lets be clear, any daily close <1695 will be bearish, and suggestive that a multi-week high is already in.

Otherwise, its another wave higher to the sp'1715/25 target zone across the next day or two.
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So..which side we close of sp'1695 will be important.

I'm guessing on the upper side..and I am indeed..still waiting!
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