Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed the week on a marginally bearish note, with the Dow -114pts (0.7%), sp -7pts (0.4%) @ 1606. Near term trend is possibly a multi-day bear flag, bears will need confirmation with a daily close next week, with <sp'1590.


sp'daily5

Dow

R2K

Trans

Summary

A bit of a messy day to end the week, and first half of the trading year.

The little sell off in the last few minutes of today is not entirely to be trusted, not least for 'month-end' issues.
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Broadly, all the indexes are offering what might be a 3/4 day bear flag, but we'll need a significantly lower Mon/Tuesday close to have confidence in that scenario.

*I remain heavy short the indexes across the weekend, seeking an exit in the sp'1580/70s by next Wednesday.

a little more later...

Volatility closes the week flat

Despite some weakness in the main indexes in the early morning, and in the closing hour, the VIX failed to show any real strength, and closed unchanged @ 16.86. Across the week, the VIX declined by a rather significant 10.8%, but that still made for a higher high..and higher low.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

The VIX weekly candle sure doesn't look pretty for those seeking lower equities in July, yet...we have put in another set of 'higher highs and higher lows' for the sixth consecutive week. In many ways, that is perhaps the most bearish aspect right now.
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VIX looks floored on the hourly chart, and I will be seeking the low 18s next week. VIX 20 looks possible next week, but it sure won't be easy. It seems to take a real scare in this market to even briefly hit the low 20s.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed, with the sp' settling @ 1606, after the Monday low of 1560. With next week being a 3.5 day trading week, it is difficult to call whether the bulls will get the opportunity to melt the market higher, or whether bears will see at least a small wave lower.


sp'60min

Summary

..and thus concludes the first half of 2013.

Frankly, I'm burnt out. Thank the gods its the weekend.
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Have a good...and restful weekend everyone!

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bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week...

*next main post, late Saturday, probably on the world monthly index charts