3pm update - slight weakness to conclude Q2

The smaller 15/60min cycles are suggestive of a little weakness in the last hour of Q2 trading. A close <sp'1600 looks out of range though, and the bulls should be relieved at this weeks considerable ramp. Bears still have the weekly cycles on their side though, ..just.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, its been a long week, and a tough quarter for the bears, and unquestionably, the first half of the year has been vastly on the bullish side.

I can only hope the market sees some serious volatility in Q3/4, if only to offer some good cycles to trade.
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*I will hold heavy-short across the weekend.

Something for the bears to look to, as possible indication of weakness early next week...

Oil...weak

Oil has often been a leading indicator, and so far, its still failing to break the big $100
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3.11pm..well, there is a touch of weakness...sub 1610.

Arguably, anything <1610 should be enough to at least calm those bears terrified of closing >1625/30 (including yours truly).
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3.35pm.. sp'1614s, hmm, a ramp into the close to 1620s would be a real annoyance.

Who wants to hold long across the weekend? Although I realise, the same can be said to those on the short side.

2pm update - back to flat

Its turning into something of a dull end to the week. The market is back to flat, and there is simply very little going on. VIX has no consistent power, and is melting lower, -2% in the mid 16s. VIX 20s look very difficult for next week, not least with the market closed for 1.5 days.


sp'15min

Trans' weekly

Summary

Despite the weekly gains, the Trans is still holding a red candle on the week, so there is still some hint of weakness for next week.
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Overall though, its been a week for the bulls, from 1560 to the low 1600s, no doubt helped by 3 mid-sized doses of QE-pomo.


2.22pm, a touch of weakness, but until <1610, its still all...noise.

Metals sharply higher, but on the month..Gold is -$153, and Silver -$2.50

Anyone getting hysterical over todays rise is going to be just as disappointed as those calling a floor in mid-April.

1pm update - battling it out at sp'1610

We're stuck in the sp'1608/13 zone, the break from this will be important, although we could merely trundle sideways into the close. A weekly close of sp'1610 would be the most unclear situation, and give everyone a great deal to ponder across the weekend.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

What is clear, we did indeed break the 3/4 day up channel on the indexes this morning, so the bears do have that to tout.

Further, we've certainly not seen a ramp straight to the mid 1620s, and with multiple resistance, the longer we fail to break it, the harder its going to be for the bulls.

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An interesting afternoon ahead. I sure would like to see another minor wave lower, taking out 1600.

1.40pm.. market getting squeezed..its gonna break..one way or the other..

Bigger cycles would suggest..somewhat lower.