1pm update - afternoon battle

The bulls are desperately trying to hold the 1600 level. Considering the VIX looks floored in the mid 17s, I do not think the market can hold a close >1600. With just a little push lower, the bears could achieve a moderately red close, and would set up some serious carnage into the Friday close.


sp'60min'3 - broad outlook

vix'60min

Summary

Its still looking okay for those who are taking/building new short positions.

Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle certainly looks on the high side, although no clear sell signals..yet.
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I'm going with what I have been thinking about for the last few days..  a VIX gap fill..and then the next equity wave lower....sp'1530s would be the obvious target.

Certainly, that looks to be hit by mid July, but it could come within a few days.
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*I am heavy short, and in no hurry to exit this until considerably lower levels.

12pm update - bulls need to break higher

Bulls need to keep pushing from here, or the bears are going to seize back control, and then whack this market to new lows, <sp'1560. VIX looks floored in the mid 17s. Precious metals are getting obliterated again, Gold -$40. Oil is weak, -0.5%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The levels are pretty clear for those seeking renewed downside.

Bears need a daily close of VIX 18s, with sp <1590. That doesn't necessarily have to occur today, but there is of course the risk that the bulls will manage 1620s on one final push.
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I'm guessing no...and have indeed already launched a major short, from sp'1601 /VIX 17.50s.

Interestingly, MRO is perhaps showing todays failed rally better than anything out there...

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VIX update from Mr T.



time for lunch

11am update - battling it out

The main market may have maxed out @ sp'1603. Bears should be seeking a daily close under the hourly10MA, currently (still rising) @ 1587. Bulls should be concerned that the VIX has put in an hourly reversal candle..in the gap-zone no less.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, its an interesting situation. We've bounced a good 43pts off the Monday morning low, and for me, that was a valid place to go short.

There IS risk of upside to 1620s - as many realise, but I think the risk/reward is very reasonable.

*I am HEAVY short the main market from sp'1601, and via VIX 17.50s.

Seeking an exit in the sp'1550s, with VIX 23/25..within 3-5 trading days.


11.23am... still battling it out..just under 1600. This could easily last all day..even much of tomorrow.

What is clear though, we have a few pretty clear trends.

Bears need a VIX close >18.., 18.50s would be decisive, along with sp <1590.
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