3pm update - patient bears

The market is holding moderate gains on all the main indexes, with the sp' breaking into the 1590s just earlier. Bulls should be content with any close >1585, with the VIX set to close -8/11%. Further equity upside looks likely early Wednesday.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The VIX in particular is right on schedule, with a gap-fill seemingly now imminent.
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*I will stay on the sidelines overnight, but will launch a full short of the market early tomorrow, seeking a move down to 1550 by the Friday close, although the bigger target remains the lower weekly bollinger..currently @ 1495.


UPDATE 3.33pm.. sp'1592..well, now the bears will be getting real mad..and are clearly getting short-stopped out.

Further upside as high as 1605/10 looks very viable early tomorrow, and  that will arguably make for a superb re-short level.

Worse case upside is 1625 gap-fill zone, but I can't imagine that right now. I think we fill that gap in late July/August.

2pm update - next target is sp'1595

Market is still a bit shaky, but still holding reasonable gains. Next target is sp'1595, which is possible by the close of today, but more likely early Wednesday. Those bears seeking a re-short, should probably sit it out overnight. There doesn't seem to be a hurry.


sp'15min

sp'60min2' - bol'/Keltner

Summary

The smaller 15min cycle - with fib' levels, shows the next target of 1595.

No reason to expect that not to be hit.
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What I am curious to see early tomorrow is whether the bulls gap the market higher..into the 1600s..but with an immediate fail.. with black candles on the hourly index charts.

Similarly, doomer bears should be seeking a reversal candle on the VIX at the Wednesday open.
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First things first though...lets see how high the bull maniacs can ramp this into the close.
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Stock of the day remains..the failing...

BKS

I can only hope the board are feeling the pain today, as they deserve for their utter incompetence, in what should be a simple chain of book stores.
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almost as bad..are the miners...

CNX - one of the better ones, is still getting trashed

No real support until 26/25, even then, that won't likely hold. Ugly sector.


2.37pm.. Bulls making a play for the 1590s...and that will no doubt really annoy those still holding short from the 1560 low.
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1pm update - VIX still falling

Equities are still climbing, but it is one of the most unstable rallies I've seen in a long while. Meanwhile, VIX is cooling off, and is now approaching the top of the gap zone. Downside <17 is possible early Wednesday. Precious metals are again weak.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Not much to add, aside that I remain waiting to short this nonsense.
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VIX update from Mr T.




stay tuned


1.35pm.. a touch of weakness, but we're still generally higher.

As things are, I will NOT be shorting into the close, and will wait until Wednesday 10/11am.

Still looks like 1596/1605 will be hit, and thats a fair way from current levels.
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